There are over 200 stocks now in the market trading for below net current asset value and rising. Unfortunately, the economic situation combined with the lowering tide of the overall market is springing these up and I'm both afraid and interested that this is going to continue for many months. I believe this will allow a diversified portfolio of these to bring superior returns over years ahead.

Net-net's have provided strong returns even in recent decades as you can see in this paper. I'm planning on replicating something very similar to what Benjamin Graham did in the 1930s with a diversified portfolio of these trading at a discount to NCAV. I know Graham used 66% of NCAV to give a little margin of safety and I plan on using either that or less than 80% or maybe even less than NCAV. I'm thinking a little higher because back then he had the edge over other investors as his returns were not yet published and because the whole value investing world didn't know this strategy. Information and market access today is also way more available to the retail investors who may have the size to bid up the smallest ones.

I'm pretty confident that even if the returns aren't as good as with Graham they will be superior to larger market cap stocks because some of these will be the best acquisition targets for competitors. Also, as the rising tide of the overall market lifts all the boats they will benefit.

I'm kind of worried the strategy might not work well because this portfolio that I posted on a long time ago had its worst year ever in 2008. It's a portfolio of stocks very similar to net-nets but they are just under 80% of book value. Stocks also go through a real strict purchasing criteria to make it into the portfolio including profitability. This might speak really good though because I remember reading in a study maybe even the one above that found the non-profitable ones outperformed the profitable.

I'm not going to put any of my money into the basket of nets this year but I plan on tracking all of them that are at a discount to NCAV (quick liquidation value). I need some help and advice on the best free portfolio tracker that I could use for this. I think an excel spreadsheet would be the best, plugged into the internet but I forgot how to update it from the net. I also could use some advice on selling criteria. I think I remember and correct me if I'm wrong Graham sold when they reached net current asset value. I'm not going to monitor them that closely maybe, rather check up on them after 6 months to a year and go from there.

2 comments

  1. Jae Jun // March 8, 2009 12:08 AM

    I'm interested in seeing the results as well.

    A good free portfolio tracker is either http://icarra.com/ or http://covestor.com

    Covestor is very good and allows for manual input as well.

  2. STOCKMANMARC // March 11, 2009 8:02 AM

    Interesting read Mark keep us posted!