The stock watchlist I put up the other day when financials were at technical support levels has done pretty good. Actually really good. GNW since that list ran from $9 to $13, 40% run. HIG is over $28 now. RAS took off. SUPG is breaking out a little here. SBGI is up a $1 to $3.80. I put that list up because financials had flagged down and if the run was going to continue those were some of the best financials to try and trade the possible move with. I'm sure there are some compelling fundamental reasons institutions are accumulating them. I don't really care because I can just see their footprints.
FRZ and KEME are still consolidating. I'm still going to keep an eye on KEME and SUPG. NCT is breaking out. I'm long INHX and am looking for a breakout. It's slowly moving up with higher highs. I didn't get the price I wanted. I wanted a conditional trigger buy if it fell to just over $1 at 1.08 but I got filled at 1.20 I think. Still will be good if it breaks out. It sure has found support right around $1 these two days though.
full disclosure:long INHX
September 16, 2009
September 15, 2009
Coffee Stock Caribou Coffee CBOU Quick Take
Caribou beat by $.10 at the beginning of the year and had decent numbers in that hellish economy. In hindsight I guess that was one of the fundamental buy indicators. I was onto the stocks breakout but never bought any shares to hold. They have been upping guidance pretty consistently lately and I believe right now are guiding for $.38-.39 next full year. With the stock at $7.50 that seems about right at a forward PE of around 20.
The reason I am bringing up CBOU again though is I stumbled upon a coupon in the local newspaper advertising section for Caribou Coffee. What really surprised me was that the coupon was for buying their beans(or ground coffee beans). It said they were "available at a local grocery store near you." This is very good for the company and their brand. For years they have had independent reviews that ranked their coffees,especially their light roast coffees higher than competitors like Starbucks.
For some reason over the years they had been slow to sell their coffee in stores. Wholesale businesses getting coffee directly to consumers from other stores are what has propelled Diedrich Coffee (DDRX) from $.40 this year to $25. I probably had been saying that in my older CBOU posts. I knew it to be true since 2005 before Caribou started the aggressive turnaround.
What selling more of the coffee in stores means to me is it can act as a cushion around store operations because of its profitability, allow more consumers to find their brand, and possible allow for more upside surprise in EPS.
full disclosure:no position
The reason I am bringing up CBOU again though is I stumbled upon a coupon in the local newspaper advertising section for Caribou Coffee. What really surprised me was that the coupon was for buying their beans(or ground coffee beans). It said they were "available at a local grocery store near you." This is very good for the company and their brand. For years they have had independent reviews that ranked their coffees,especially their light roast coffees higher than competitors like Starbucks.
For some reason over the years they had been slow to sell their coffee in stores. Wholesale businesses getting coffee directly to consumers from other stores are what has propelled Diedrich Coffee (DDRX) from $.40 this year to $25. I probably had been saying that in my older CBOU posts. I knew it to be true since 2005 before Caribou started the aggressive turnaround.
What selling more of the coffee in stores means to me is it can act as a cushion around store operations because of its profitability, allow more consumers to find their brand, and possible allow for more upside surprise in EPS.
full disclosure:no position
September 13, 2009
Interesting Stock Charts
Huge volume spike on Bronco Drilling Friday. This ran to 5.40 after hours. Their balance sheet has been improving quarter by quarter.
Looks a little like a failed signal on the triangle breakdown. That sell-off went nowhere and it bounced back nice. Looking for volume to come back and big pop very soon.
I think ARNA has phase III results soon.
Nice volume spike and looks like clean breakout in works. Could just take off.
Hammer right up at resistance. Looks bullish.
Still breaking out. Amazing.
Possible this was a bull flag.
full disclosure:no positions
Looks a little like a failed signal on the triangle breakdown. That sell-off went nowhere and it bounced back nice. Looking for volume to come back and big pop very soon.
I think ARNA has phase III results soon.
Nice volume spike and looks like clean breakout in works. Could just take off.
Hammer right up at resistance. Looks bullish.
Still breaking out. Amazing.
Possible this was a bull flag.
full disclosure:no positions
September 11, 2009
ZRBA Net Cash Stock
ZRBA is no longer going to do the liquidation and put out a press release yesterday they are exploring strategic alternatives. I'm holding from about $3.90 and the stock popped up to $4.97 and I just sold at $4.66. The way this thing has traded on news in the past is it runs big first day then because know one trades this stock it falls off the next day. Whoever comes in with size will probably do this again and I can't afford to wait however many months, years for a bid on this company to possibly come in right now when I have a big profit margin in my face and the information I mentioned above.
full disclosure:no position ZRBA
full disclosure:no position ZRBA
Stocks To Keep On Watchlist
ADPT had a big volume spike the other day when it ran over resistance. This was a good entry point and see how it bounced off support in the upper $2.80s where I liked the stop loss just below? I don't BS with these stocks. Especially net-net's. This set-up is still here. It just tested support(former resistance) and could just breakout or consolidate again. A new entry would be best on a breakout I feel because the best stop off of a new entry isn't to clear to me. A stop loss for a breakout entry over 3.13ish would be 2.95.
PGV is back in play. This thing loves to run. DEAR is in play and is a bank so you know what the appetite can be like for a stock like that. Huge run though. Would be surprised to not see some consolidation. These stocks I just throw up on watchlists are ideal for daytrading and are just watches. If I do an entire post on a stock I really mean business on it. BSTK from the other day ran 90% that next day.
full disclosure: no positions
PGV is back in play. This thing loves to run. DEAR is in play and is a bank so you know what the appetite can be like for a stock like that. Huge run though. Would be surprised to not see some consolidation. These stocks I just throw up on watchlists are ideal for daytrading and are just watches. If I do an entire post on a stock I really mean business on it. BSTK from the other day ran 90% that next day.
full disclosure: no positions
September 10, 2009
Trendline Charts
I longed FSII. I'm just looking for 8% or so because I'm chasing it and I'm going to use a mental stop loss if it breaks this trend line on any decent sell volume. Click on these pics to get a bigger image.
EGMI's trend I drew up has held up as it has bounced nicely off it. It's really amazing how much information the market will give you if you look at it. On the first pull-back volume decreased on this stock until it bounced off trend line. Similar on this second pull-back where I drew the down arrows. This last time though all the sellers shook out in a crescendo and it made a bullish engulfing pattern.
full disclosure:long FSII
EGMI's trend I drew up has held up as it has bounced nicely off it. It's really amazing how much information the market will give you if you look at it. On the first pull-back volume decreased on this stock until it bounced off trend line. Similar on this second pull-back where I drew the down arrows. This last time though all the sellers shook out in a crescendo and it made a bullish engulfing pattern.
full disclosure:long FSII
September 9, 2009
Net-Net FSII Soaring
I first found this net-net at around $.60 and it was at a big discount to net current asset value. I put it on the stock watchlist Monday because it broke out of a triangular consolidation. It's slightly over NCAV of $28 million now at over $1 a share. Huge volume today.
full disclosure:no position at time of writing
full disclosure:no position at time of writing
September 7, 2009
Strong Stocks Watch List
The financial sector has bounced off an important technical level on light volume. XLF, the sector ETF printed a hammer Friday which could be bullish. Anyway, these are a handful of stocks that stood out to me technically and have some momo going for them for potential quick trades.
Financials
RAS flagged and bounced real well.
GNW same but trend line a little more defined.
HIG two hammers back to back off trend line. This chart looks the best out of these financials as far as technicals with the two hammers and clean trend line. Just needs volume to follow through again or a move over Fridays high.
TGIC seems due for a bounce.
Trying to hold uptrend. Last time it congested around trend line before run.
Nice consolidation. Looking for breakout.
Looks good on breakout.
Former deep value FSII continues to impress. Nice volume on this tech stock.
FRZ maybe good on breakout
breaking out
Should be a good watch list for some good moves if the runs continue.
full disclosure:no positions
Financials
RAS flagged and bounced real well.
GNW same but trend line a little more defined.
HIG two hammers back to back off trend line. This chart looks the best out of these financials as far as technicals with the two hammers and clean trend line. Just needs volume to follow through again or a move over Fridays high.
TGIC seems due for a bounce.
Trying to hold uptrend. Last time it congested around trend line before run.
Nice consolidation. Looking for breakout.
Looks good on breakout.
Former deep value FSII continues to impress. Nice volume on this tech stock.
FRZ maybe good on breakout
breaking out
Should be a good watch list for some good moves if the runs continue.
full disclosure:no positions
September 2, 2009
Stock Market Analysis
My technical bull call from about a month or so ago on the major indices has been right on. Around Dow Jones 9,500 was some key resistance. Dow Jones 10,000 would take out some good resistance levels and about be confirmation of a technical bottom. It looks like this is going to be a struggle with these fairly valued valuations. I had no idea what the fundamentals and economics was going to look like a month ago or even four months ago. Fundamentals and valuations are powerful I feel and know to. It's a fact technicals can only go so far. Economic reality is a powerful slap in the face.
In that last link you can see how the overall stock market started breaking down technically when valuations were at historic levels in the tech bubble nine years ago. People were blinded by the "new age" of technology and valued stocks as if they could grow profits beyond the possible. Once the technicals matched the fundamental picture that was the time to take profits and get short.
If the economic data stays about the same going into the fourth quarter 2009 and 2010 and GDP adjusted for stimulus stays pretty crappy its an easy short in my opinion on overall fundys.
Valuations
S&P 500
Trailing PE
70.85
Forward
17.24
Naz
Trailing
43
Forward
20 !
Dow
Trailing
15
Forward
15
This is not just another little recession. The economy is not going to blast to new heights any time soon. Forward valuations look more like a regular old recession is about to end I feel. The consumer is different now. The consumer is saving more now and deleveraging the last 15-20 years of insanity. This could take some time I believe.
The question I have been asking myself is just how long can the government spending and low rates continue to have a positive effect on the economy without bankrupting us in the long-term if it is not to late already. Could the FED and government stimulus actually work? They certainly had an effect in the past. But just how bad is the recession/depression? It's not easily overcome right?
I think these valuations are getting to optimistic and we are about fairly valued here. There is the possibility that the run continues hoping for a big, real change and in that case I feel that 12,000 on Dow and 1,300 S&P are the easiest levels to get short on a solid technical signal. I'm still watching for a signal here for a short. A major wide ranging day where we see a 3-4% plunge would be a good signal. There isn't a spike top here like we had on the last tops over the last year. This action the past day is not looking like a major signal. A spike/wide ranging drop day and a gap down should be good technical analysis indicators going forward. Feel free anybody to comment on the economy and valuations and disagree with me. I like hearing all sides to things and I won't bite.
source on PE ratios
In that last link you can see how the overall stock market started breaking down technically when valuations were at historic levels in the tech bubble nine years ago. People were blinded by the "new age" of technology and valued stocks as if they could grow profits beyond the possible. Once the technicals matched the fundamental picture that was the time to take profits and get short.
If the economic data stays about the same going into the fourth quarter 2009 and 2010 and GDP adjusted for stimulus stays pretty crappy its an easy short in my opinion on overall fundys.
Valuations
S&P 500
Trailing PE
70.85
Forward
17.24
Naz
Trailing
43
Forward
20 !
Dow
Trailing
15
Forward
15
This is not just another little recession. The economy is not going to blast to new heights any time soon. Forward valuations look more like a regular old recession is about to end I feel. The consumer is different now. The consumer is saving more now and deleveraging the last 15-20 years of insanity. This could take some time I believe.
The question I have been asking myself is just how long can the government spending and low rates continue to have a positive effect on the economy without bankrupting us in the long-term if it is not to late already. Could the FED and government stimulus actually work? They certainly had an effect in the past. But just how bad is the recession/depression? It's not easily overcome right?
I think these valuations are getting to optimistic and we are about fairly valued here. There is the possibility that the run continues hoping for a big, real change and in that case I feel that 12,000 on Dow and 1,300 S&P are the easiest levels to get short on a solid technical signal. I'm still watching for a signal here for a short. A major wide ranging day where we see a 3-4% plunge would be a good signal. There isn't a spike top here like we had on the last tops over the last year. This action the past day is not looking like a major signal. A spike/wide ranging drop day and a gap down should be good technical analysis indicators going forward. Feel free anybody to comment on the economy and valuations and disagree with me. I like hearing all sides to things and I won't bite.
source on PE ratios
Nasdaq Top Forming
I'm really seeing strong bearish signals forming on the Nasdaq. I was going to mention in the previous post that Shanghai has had some major trouble lately to. This is also a small part of why I'm looking to get bearish here.
This trade to go short is looking better and better as I look at this chart coupled with valuations. I mentioned before I wanted to see a spike day. I hadn't looked at the Nasdaq percentage loss yet or the chart. Well, there is a decent spike day. In other words a volatile day. It isn't all that nasty a day actually but if you look at some other things I am seeing there is not a good chart here.
My red support line shows an internal trend line that touches support 4 times. The buyers and sellers in the market are comfortable with moving prices higher on that trend line. The chart has rising lows. This is bullish. However, it is right on trend line support again here with an ugly shooting star/gravestone candle. It was also a volatile day on strong volume.
The resistance trend line shows us that the Naz has been making higher highs to. This was bullish too. But, on that last push the market got the breakout but failed to hold the higher high and continue. You can see it in the chart below. The last time the momentum stalled was about 1,850 and it brought the drop below trend line support. The only drop below it. This last move here is different because it actually made a higher high but buyers immediately got shaken out.
This is also a potential double top forming that the arrows point to. I feel like confirmation of the top will be right around 1,900. I plan on getting short before hand though. The fundamentals for a short look good to. I am thinking I want to get a little broad market exposure short with the bear 3 X short Technology ETF (TYP) or another market ETF. I want to enter on any weakness and any break of trend line support. I think the risk reward is good here even if this isn't a major top and we just get another day or two of pull-back. If I swing something the next support level is my profit target. Right above that red confirmation line on the second chart. If we get a big gap down I'll probably be even more bearish.
I think I might start doing video and audio charts sometime soon. Keep an eye out for those. And if you get my posts RSS be sure and subscribe to the comments to. I have the widget for that on the right sidebar. There have been some good comments lately. Especially on the Vonage VG post.
full disclosure:no positions at time of writing
This trade to go short is looking better and better as I look at this chart coupled with valuations. I mentioned before I wanted to see a spike day. I hadn't looked at the Nasdaq percentage loss yet or the chart. Well, there is a decent spike day. In other words a volatile day. It isn't all that nasty a day actually but if you look at some other things I am seeing there is not a good chart here.
My red support line shows an internal trend line that touches support 4 times. The buyers and sellers in the market are comfortable with moving prices higher on that trend line. The chart has rising lows. This is bullish. However, it is right on trend line support again here with an ugly shooting star/gravestone candle. It was also a volatile day on strong volume.
The resistance trend line shows us that the Naz has been making higher highs to. This was bullish too. But, on that last push the market got the breakout but failed to hold the higher high and continue. You can see it in the chart below. The last time the momentum stalled was about 1,850 and it brought the drop below trend line support. The only drop below it. This last move here is different because it actually made a higher high but buyers immediately got shaken out.
This is also a potential double top forming that the arrows point to. I feel like confirmation of the top will be right around 1,900. I plan on getting short before hand though. The fundamentals for a short look good to. I am thinking I want to get a little broad market exposure short with the bear 3 X short Technology ETF (TYP) or another market ETF. I want to enter on any weakness and any break of trend line support. I think the risk reward is good here even if this isn't a major top and we just get another day or two of pull-back. If I swing something the next support level is my profit target. Right above that red confirmation line on the second chart. If we get a big gap down I'll probably be even more bearish.
I think I might start doing video and audio charts sometime soon. Keep an eye out for those. And if you get my posts RSS be sure and subscribe to the comments to. I have the widget for that on the right sidebar. There have been some good comments lately. Especially on the Vonage VG post.
full disclosure:no positions at time of writing
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