...

March 21, 2016

37% Gain On Jones Soda JSDA!

I posted right after my exit of Jones Soda JSDA on DynamiteStocks.com. So I thought I would post here since I originally mentioned JSDA on this blog. I went long JSDA at $.53 right after my intial post and sold the other day at $.73 for a +37% gainer.

February 16, 2016

Jones Soda JSDA

While looking through a stock scanner for stocks showing high buy volume spikes I came across a familiar name. Jones Soda (JSDA) has been around a long time and even have their products in my local high end grocery store Harris Teeter. It's been almost forgot now though and trades on the OTC with other penny stocks at just $.51 a share. It bottomed out lately at about $.30 a share. Average daily trading volume on JSDA is 85,000 shares. It traded 1.5 million shares Friday!

This is a $21 million company. Looking at the balance sheet everything is fine. No long-term debt and a 1.5 current ratio. Hardly your typical penny stock. Something must be wrong. Yes, revenues have been flat to down the past couple years. Gross margins are stable now though. I think this is one of those companies where expectations are so bleak that anything positive boosts the stock. I see that likely hood a lot more than I see the revenue and earnings getting worse. With the balance sheet the way it is they have plenty of time to get it together. Technically, the stock has bottomed. It looks like a high bull flag going on here. If it breaks over $.56 again it's off to the races.

February 3, 2016

A Good Resource

Some of you may have heard about the Valeant Pharma (VRX) news story awhile back. The company was doing some suspicious things and Citron called them out on it. Their report opened up the doors for further investigations. Citron Research does analysis from frauds to simple shorts on overvaluation. There is a short bias tilt. Anyway, be it something fraudulent or just a simple possible short people give Citron attention. That in itself has debatably triggered bear raids on lower volume names. Even larger volume large-cap stocks can see bearish action.

Their newest article is on Monster Beverage (MNST). No big smoking gun here. Just simple overvaluation. The stock looks a little expensive. The entire case is in this article here on Monster Beverage (MNST).

December 2, 2015

MSN and JVA Revisited

I quickly went through a net current asset stock screen. There is not much out there to no surprise. There are a few though that have potential. I've been blogging on them some. The SORL, the SPU. I've blogged about these two deep value stocks a lot in the past. First up is Emerson Radio (MSN)and it has always been around net current asset value and profitable. I took a look at Emerson again and this is what I see currently. I see cash on the balance sheet stable the past year. It is actually marginally up from last year. Cash is 28.1 million. There is zero long-term debt. Total liabilities are just 3.9 million. So net cash is roughly $24 million. The market capitalization of the company is $27 million. So it is right around net cash with the stock at 1.01 per share. I don't think it is any coincidence the stock has bottomed out and found support around 1.00 the past couple years. You can see that here in this chart below.










They squeaked out a small profit last quarter though revenue doesn't look good. Who knows what is to come. I am going to put a limit order to buy some shares around 1.11 or lower. If the price drops below .90 the thesis doesn't work anymore and I'll take the loss.

Coffee Holding JVA is very close to being a net current asset stock. It's been a net tangible asset value stock for awhile. The price has just been in free fall this year. It appears technically it could be bottoming. I hope it keeps dropping though. I see this as the best net current asset value if we get there. It almost got there in early October this year in the 3.80s. That was the bottom though and it got picked up on strong buy volume. This one really just needs an activist investor I think. Something like that. I don't know a whole lot about this company but wholesale coffee can be consistently profitable.

October 24, 2015

Is The Tape Manipulated Again?

The US stock market keeps ripping higher with mediocre global economic data at best. Company revenues and earnings locally here in the US aren't stellar either. Take for instance Caterpillar (CAT). The company reported quarterly earnings yesterday that were abysmal. The company is still practically in a death spiral. And they may be one of the best indicators of future growth. The stock has been in a strong downtrend but surged higher on heavy trading volume the day of the earnings announcement. It even followed through more today!

Just looking at the major indices the steady climb higher reminds me of the surge off of the 2009 lows. It looks like the aftermath bottom following the 2010 flash crash and the mini flash crash of last fall. What did all of those have in common? One thing. High frequency trading (HFT) or program trading. Here is a video from the summer of 2009 where an institutional trader talks about HFT. He said it just overwhelmed the tape and no one can fight it.

Many stocks were driven higher with uncanny price action. One that comes to my mind in particular from 2009 is Beazer Homes (BZH). If you are familiar with "truly" manipulated penny stocks aka pump and dumps this chart will ring a bell. This is BZH in 2009. See how it goes up day after day without consolidating? And any red days are met with a continuation of the uptrend. Then it soars at the end and crashes.












Here is the current S&P 500 index in its sharp uptrend














They say officially that 50-60% of the volume on the exchanges are high frequency trading. I've always been skeptical and assume its closer to 70 or 80% or more. I don't personally have any problem with HFT.

I think we are seeing a high frequency trading bottom being put in here on the major indices. When we are going higher everyday don't fight it. I wouldn't be surprised if this keeps up for weeks. It smells like QE is here or is coming.

September 23, 2015

Leading Indicator of Stock Market Is High Yield Bonds

Sometimes there are strong leading indicators in markets. A leading indicator is when one market leads another. One will go up or down and the other will simply follow a little behind. The two are correlated. You can gauge the next movement by seeing what the leading indicator is doing. An example of this is crude oil and the US stock market in late February early March of 2009. Crude oil was a leading indicator for the market. In October of 2007 the Chinese stock market was a leading indicator for US markets. This year corporate bonds specifically high yield corporates are a leading indicator of the stock market. The correlation is continuing even this week. Tickers like JNK, HYG and LQD are leading. Here's JNK the high yield bond ETF beginning it's trading range breakdown in early June.














The S&P 500 didn't really fall significantly until August. You could maybe argue very late June it had a scare but it held in. Still late June is far from early June. So what does this mean? Watch friggin bonds folks! HYG and JNK lead the way again 4 trading days ago when they started breaking down again. The market followed the very next day. We are one or two days behind now. JNK just printed a nasty shooting star yesterday the 22nd. Bearish prints on both of these. I'm writing this early morning here on the 23rd. The downtrend is strong and intact on HYG and JNK. They are coming off of a clear bear flag and it appears the lows will be tested.

September 10, 2015

Video Blog #2




This is my second video blog ever. The first one I posted on my other blog . I was looking for a good desktop recording software and ran across this one called HyperCam. I'm still working out some bugs with the audio to video sync. I forgot to mention the rounding top that Under Armor has. In the video I discuss my UA short and look at crude oil and natural gas. Which way will crude go from here? Watch and find out.

September 7, 2015

Under Armour UA Overvalued

We all knew Netflix NFLX was overvalued with a PE multiple of a whopping 200. It's been taking a beating in the recent downturn. I'd like to propose Under Armour UA as overvalued. It's a great company and leader in its industry just like Netflix but the valuation is still to rich. Under Armour currently trades at 88 times earnings. It also trades for 6 times sales. Earnings are expected to grow roughly 24% a year going forward. With a PE of 88 and at 6 times sales perfection is "baked in" to the companies future performance. There is a lot of market cap that could quickly get trimmed on a bad quarter or future guidance. Or how about a market correction! This looks like a correction and an industry leader like Under Armour could get sold off like a Netflix or Apple. I see it happening here in the charts. Let's look at a 6 month chart of Under Armour below.


















See the red line that is forming a round top? A rounding top is a bearish top formation. Some people call it a head and shoulders. Under Armour is a high beta stock and this chart is essentially mimicking the major indices. So yeah we are very close to confirmation of a top in the market. What is does after the pennant bear flag below is key. It looks to me that with the shooting star candles on UA we are going lower next. I am short some Under Armour at 94.52. I successfully shorted Netflix the other day at 116 and covered at 110. I cataloged that trade on my trading blog .










August 25, 2015

Wild Monday

I'd like to start this off by emphasizing the current situation in US equity markets. Putting it in perspective we have been on a historic bull run since the March lows of 2009. Nothing compares historically to the 1982 to 2000 run but this has been up there. Lately the market has been going straight up. These kinds of corrections in bull markets are good because it keeps the pace slow and steady and avoids a bubble crash. Let's face it valuations have been getting a little ahead of themselves on US companies. Netflix NFLX was trading at a price to earnings multiple P/E of 200. Other big tech companies like Amazon AMZN, Apple AAPL were getting expensive to. Geez, not even mentioning Tesla Motors, GoPro, Alibaba etc etc. These are all falling. They are right to fall.

The media gets over-dramatic about other economies. The US economy has been doing pretty well considering the rest of the world. Don't quote me verbatim but roughly a 1% change in GDP in Europe only effects US GDP 1/4%. It is a global economy now but I'm not convinced the US is going to go into a deep recession because of China or any other Region. There may well be a recession. I don't think it would be a bad thing. Recessions are a healthy part of economic growth. Greenspan did everything he could to prevent them and look at the bubble it created. Bernanke to.  Slow and steady is good.

I just did a post on my trading blog Dynamitestocks.com about some of the things that went on early Monday morning during the US session. I don't know if all of the media is reporting it but we did in fact trigger circuit breakers within 30 minutes of the open. Circuit Breakers are "safe-guards" the stock exchanges put in place to stop a crashing market. A drop of 7% on the Dow Jones or S&P 500 index triggers a level one circuit breaker and the market is halted for 15 minutes. We reached that 7% threshold on the S&P just minutes after the open.

August 9, 2015

Energize The Portfolio With Planet Fitness (PLNT)

Get The Portfolio In Shape With Planet Fitness (PLNT)
Greetings investors across the globe! Amidst the latest economic data on jobs and speculation on the FED raising rates I have something different. I have a stock analysis. A couple of days ago Planet Fitness (PLNT) a fitness center went public on the New York Stock Exchange. I know this company well. I am a black card member of Planet Fitness. I've been going to Planet Fitness for about a year now. The thing I like the most about it is I pay $19.99 a month and I can go to any location I want. I go to two different locations that are open 24/7. There is a Planet Fitness a block from my apartment and there is another one near my work! Tomorrow after work I'm going to stop by the one next to work. A couple of days ago I was at the one near my place. The black card is actually the highest tier of membership and it's still only $19.99. The other membership tier is cheaper and is $10. With my membership I get access to the massage chair for free, tanning, 1/2 price cooler drinks and probably a lot of other perks I'm not aware of or won't use. Some clubs have hydromassage, haircuts and 20% off Reebok apparel.

One of the reasons the company has been so successful is it is marketed to the broad population. It's marketed as a welcoming, non-intimidating "judgment free zone." It appeals to people who are just getting started. It's not a typical bodybuilding "gym." "This exceptional value proposition is designed to appeal to a broad population, including occasional gym users and the approximately 80% of the U.S. and Canadian populations over age 14 who are not gym members, particularly those who find the traditional fitness club setting intimidating and expensive." There are no free weight barbells. It doesn't attract the steroid using bro's who need huge plates to squat. They do have plenty of free weights but they are dumbbells. There is a squat rack, smith machine, pull-down cables and plenty of weights. There is also every necessary piece of equipment for whatever your fitness goal. They cover it all. The place is big.

Why Is This A Good Stock?
With the economy doing well people are spending money on all sorts of discretionary industries. I recently heard that Americans are spending more on eating out at than ever before. The government jobs report that came out Friday noted that one of the strongest job growth industries is leisure. So the bottom line is people are spending. I believe they are willing to spend $10 to $20 a month on a gym membership. The growth of Planet Fitness proves this. They have grown from 389 stores in 2010 in 39 states to 918 stores in 47 states, Canada and Puerto Rico for the year end 2014. They are one of the largest and fastest growing fitness centers in the country. If there is a trend toward healthy living fitness centers and gyms will reap the rewards of that trend.

The thing I love about this company is they are growing from franchising.  Everyone knows about the Mcdonald's (MCD) growth story. The way they grew so fast and so profitable was from franchising. Same here. Planet Fitness has had same store sales growth since 2010. Planet Fitness franchised locations are growing same store sales twice as fast as corporate locations! For the year of 2010 franchisee owned locations grew same store sales 14% and corporate owned grew 5.7%. In 2011 they both grew 3%, in 2012 franchise were 8.7% corporate 4.8%,  2013 franchise were 9.1% vs 6.1%, 2014 11.5% vs 5.4% and in the last quarter 2015 franchisee sales almost tripled with 11.7% vs corporate 4.6%.

There have been 33 straight quarters of same store sales growth. Here is the companies growth in pictures.















When you invest in a stock you ask, what could go wrong? I don't see the franchising model failing this company. Infact I see it as a major catalyst for serious growth. One thing that could happen is they try to grow to fast which will hurt them. That's a bridge to cross if we get there though. There are roughly 900 locations nationwide and the company sees potential for 4,000 in the US.

Numbers and Valuation
Not only does the company have revenue and earnings growth they generate a lot of free cash flow. Free cash flow in 2013 was $60 million. In 2014 there was $25 million. Free cash flow is great to see in any business. Some have zero! Just how profitable is this company? Net profit margin for the full year 2014 was 13%. This is a good net margin. They are carrying a good bit of debt. They were bought by private equity a couple years ago and I'm not sure if that had something to do with the debt. The balance sheet is fine none the less. The current ratio is .94. I like to see 1.0 or greater for a current ratio but this is close enough.

Now the sexy stuff. Earnings. Earnings from 2013 to 2014 grew 48% from $25 million to $37 million. They can definitely grow. Earnings per share for 2014 was $.24. Off of a stock currently trading at $18 the trailing price to earnings (PE) multiple is 75. This seems expensive, however, if they continue to grow like they have this is a fair price at $18 a share. This is a growth stock. Let's take a more common example of PE valuation. A company grows earnings 10% a year. The PE is 20 and we call that a healthy PE premium for a quality company growing at 10%. The PE for Planet Fitness in that scenario would be close to 100.

 I see the floor for the stock price at $12 a share. At $12 a share it is trading at a multiple equal to its earnings growth. A 50 PE or the growth rate puts us at $12 a share. Growth stocks are great because there is often multiple expansion as more people want to be a part of fast revenue and earnings growth. The downside with them is if the multiple gets to far ahead of real growth the stock is priced for disappointment on any negative news. This stock has a long way to go before it gets to that point. I see a lot of potential for share price growth with Planet Fitness over coming years.

Sources

http://investor.planetfitness.com/investors/about-planet-fitness/default.aspx

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1637207/000119312515230459/d888681ds1.htm#rom888681_9