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August 18, 2009

Stocks Fighting The Bear

These are some stocks that had unusual buying volume yesterday during the sell-off.


A little break over resistance on a big volume spike for this one. Earnings were yesterday after the bell. Had a couple hammers off of trend line support. I like buying the day after a hammer on a trend line. I could be a little late with this one but like most of these in this post being patient and waiting for pull-back on trend line support is possible here.


















Longer time frame. Nice trend line.














Lots of volume back to back on airline penny stock MESA. PNCL another airline in play.














NANO last time volume spiked it sold off for a bit.




























Just pure momo. Hammer breakout.Hammer breakout.

















full disclosure: no positions

August 15, 2009

Special Situation Stock

I just stumbled upon this special situation Zareba Systems ZRBA. Looks like they are doing a reverse split and will cash out shareholders who hold fewer than 250 shares for $5.20. The stock closed at $3.60 Friday.

I just found this over at Mike Goode's ReaperTrades.com



full disclosure:No position. May take a position in future.

August 13, 2009

Stocks In Trends & A Really Cool Stock AXL

This isn't my watchlist. These are just some charts that I thought were pretty neat and wanted to make an example of. I guess this post is like a diary of charts.

Anyway, AXL traded really well last week. I think this one came in my scans in the low $1's. That was when I put it in my watchlist and posted that watchlist on Twitter on July 16th . Before the big run. Yes, stocks like this fell into my lap in my scans the weekend before the market psycho bull run. I bet you remember that week. What a week. Even though they were in my lap that week I would give myself a D+ on trading them. I didn't make enough trades in them. I also only caught about 16% profit on AXL when there was an easy 50%+ to be had as you can see from this chart.














AXL ran about 50% if I remember correctly on the first big push day on volume. Funny enough that last huge day it had the stock maxed out again at 50%. Pattern? I'd say yeah. But the better pattern is the way it trades. It runs then consolidates the next day. You can see it in the red candles that represent a negative finish for the day. That 50% was pretty cool but the better indicator was when it topped out at $3.98ish for the second day in a row. I think one of those days was actually $3.99 if I remember correctly. The round number $4.00 was a significant resistance level for the stock. Round numbers and .50 marks on stocks under about $3 are psychological levels and even more importantly important to program trades I feel. Half the volume on the exchanges is computers. I learned the round number edge from another trader almost a year ago. If you were holding the stock long after the shooting star/gravestone candle on the 3 or 5 minute at below $4 you better have been concerned. I was just watching though because I had already taken a profit days earlier and was afraid to chase.































Beazer BZH again. Almost an amazing thing to see in a big board stock. Day after day of a rise with few red days. Almost has the look of manipulation.















You can see on these you just wait for a pull-back to trend line then you buy when it's on the trend line support. You sell your gain. Repeat. This stuff happens all the time.





















Nice failed signal on PACR when it broke trend line support and still held. Wish I had notice this earlier. Maybe still good on pull-back.

















full disclosure: no positions

August 11, 2009

Net Current Asset Stock ADPT

ADPT has $370.2 mil in net current asset value and a market cap of around $350 mil. The stock just traded higher today amidst today's market beating.
















There has been some heavier buying recently as the volume spikes tell. If and only if it trades and closes over $3.00 per share for a couple days I feel like it has a good shot at $3.60















full disclosure: no position

August 10, 2009

My 2009 Net-Net Stocks Performance & Going Forward

I went back through the blog starting with the first day of 2009 and crunched some numbers on my net current asset stocks pick performance. This assumes one bought them the next day after finding them on the blog this year. If it was on the blog in 2009 and less than net current assets I used it. Looking through the 2009 list there are some that I posted on earlier than 2009 like HHGP which is a -20% loser since the initial post pre 2009,TUES +58% gainer and HKN -35% since its December post when it was less than tangible assets however. I think PARL was on the blog in 2007 or 2008 to but I didn't go back that far and a search didn't turn it up. It would be a looser from then. The rest were fresh for 2009.

This might sound a little weird but I think I've said this before. I really had no idea what I was doing with net-nets before around mid-2008. In 2007 when I started following them and most of 2008 I was just feeling them out. From mid 2008 on there are a lot of winners to though of course.

These returns below were calculated with the potential buy-in starting the day after it was on the blog in 2009 because I didn't always post during market hours. These returns assume one bought that next day and sold at the stocks high afterward. The likeliness of selling at the high is not highly likely but had one decided to protect the potential profits and sell on the way up it would have been very possible to have come out with a good chunk of the bulk of those profits. About all of these I calculated about 3 weeks ago so some of them are probably up a lot more since then. SMRT hit 10.50 for example. The ones with technicals next to them were ones that technical analysis had a major role in.

25 winners
4 losers

Winners
PIR 1,600% technicals

SMRT 670%

SWIR 285%

TUES 236%

PXG 293% technicals

MSON 178% technicals

VVTV 194%

HHGP 156%

CACH 150%

AERG 100% in 1 day technicals

ANAD 96% technicals

GSIG 77% technicals

NLS 58% technicals

MLR 48%

CALL 45%

PARL 42%

HURC 40%

FSII 40% technicals

LDIS 28% technicals

JOB 26%

AEY 17%

SPAR 20% technicals

IFON 19% technicals

HKN 18%

IVA good run .50 to .70 but I think was to illiquid

NSTR .05%

Losers
CDCO -5%

ADGF -19%

RFIL -25%

QLTI -53%

SKX -46% stock crashed after post. Maybe a little to hard on this one because if doubled down off March lows it went to 14 as of now.


I'm going to start tracking the performance of my net current asset stock aka net-net picks better from here out. For it to be a pick I'll do a post on it and say it is a buy at such and such price. I'll also add it to this portfolio here. I'm pretty sure this can be viewed by anyone. I may also add none net-nets from time to time. I'm not liking Tickerspy so far because I haven't figured out how to even sell a position with it. I started a Marketocracy portfolio to which I think I like better but the $1 mil it gives me to manage is a bit much to just show how I can trade these net's.

If you've been paying attention to my net-net posts, for months now I have only been putting a net-net up if it is worthy of an actual buy very soon me. Since 2007 I have put up a lot of net-net's as potentials with my thesis on them but didn't always pound the table on them as a buy that day. I'd usually run through the good I saw and the bad. I was good then but I am even better now.

From here out my skill with stock picking will be a little more on display be it turn out good or bad. Some time in the future I may switch it over to Covestor.com. Covestor actually taps into your broker so with them there is the most complete transparency possible. For now though I feel like posting on them around the same day I trade them will do. I put up FSII ahead of time because that set-up was so good I wanted put out a heads up. I think the bulk of you that read my blog are here for net-net's and value plays. It's not always easy for me to post up an entry for a net-net trade in real-time on the same day so I might just do these watches. I don't keep as close an eye on net-net's and deep value day to day as I do my other watchlists. I trade a lot of different strategies.

I brought up earlier that I want to start charging a yearly or monthly subscription for my net-net picks. If I go that route it will still be months off. You will also have the opportunity to track my progress better before deciding if $5-$8 a month is worth it. As you can see since 2008 it has been going well and I've actually even stepped up my proficiency lately.

I've only been following net-net's since 2007 and have made really big progress since just 2008 in them. I have kind of gotten in a groove on which ones to drill down on with the fundamental analysis and focus on. Incorporating technical analysis as a tool in my various strategies has also been very significant. I am a very different investor and trader with net-net's and approach them differently than most investors who work in them. I believe that has really helped me identify some of the best performers better.

full disclosure: no positions

My 2009 Net-Net Stocks Performance & Going Forward

I went back through the blog starting with the first day of 2009 and crunched some numbers on my net current asset stocks pick performance. This assumes one bought them the next day after finding them on the blog this year. If it was on the blog in 2009 and less than net current assets I used it. Looking through the 2009 list there are some that I posted on earlier than 2009 like HHGP which is a -20% loser since the initial post pre 2009,TUES +58% gainer and HKN -35% since its December post when it was less than tangible assets however. I think PARL was on the blog in 2007 or 2008 to but I didn't go back that far and a search didn't turn it up. It would be a looser from then. The rest were fresh for 2009.

This might sound a little weird but I think I've said this before. I really had no idea what I was doing with net-nets before around mid-2008. In 2007 when I started following them and most of 2008 I was just feeling them out. From mid 2008 on there are a lot of winners to though of course.

These returns below were calculated with the potential buy-in starting the day after it was on the blog in 2009 because I didn't always post during market hours. These returns assume one bought that next day and sold at the stocks high afterward. The likeliness of selling at the high is not highly likely but had one decided to protect the potential profits and sell on the way up it would have been very possible to have come out with a good chunk of the bulk of those profits. About all of these I calculated about 3 weeks ago so some of them are probably up a lot more since then. SMRT hit 10.50 for example. The ones with technicals next to them were ones that technical analysis had a major role in.

25 winners
4 losers

Winners
PIR 1,600% technicals

SMRT 670%

SWIR 285%

TUES 236%

PXG 293% technicals

MSON 178% technicals

VVTV 194%

HHGP 156%

CACH 150%

AERG 100% in 1 day technicals

ANAD 96% technicals

GSIG 77% technicals

NLS 58% technicals

MLR 48%

CALL 45%

PARL 42%

HURC 40%

FSII 40% technicals

LDIS 28% technicals

JOB 26%

AEY 17%

SPAR 20% technicals

IFON 19% technicals

HKN 18%

IVA good run .50 to .70 but I think was to illiquid

NSTR .05%

Losers
CDCO -5%

ADGF -19%

RFIL -25%

QLTI -53%

SKX -46% stock crashed after post. Maybe a little to hard on this one because if doubled down off March lows it went to 14 as of now.


I'm going to start tracking the performance of my net current asset stock aka net-net picks better from here out. For it to be a pick I'll do a post on it and say it is a buy at such and such price. I'll also add it to this portfolio here. I'm pretty sure this can be viewed by anyone. I may also add none net-nets from time to time. I'm not liking Tickerspy so far because I haven't figured out how to even sell a position with it. I started a Marketocracy portfolio to which I think I like better but the $1 mil it gives me to manage is a bit much to just show how I can trade these net's.

If you've been paying attention to my net-net posts, for months now I have only been putting a net-net up if it is worthy of an actual buy very soon me. Since 2007 I have put up a lot of net-net's as potentials with my thesis on them but didn't always pound the table on them as a buy that day. I'd usually run through the good I saw and the bad. I was good then but I am even better now.

From here out my skill with stock picking will be a little more on display be it turn out good or bad. Some time in the future I may switch it over to Covestor.com. Covestor actually taps into your broker so with them there is the most complete transparency possible. For now though I feel like posting on them around the same day I trade them will do. I put up FSII ahead of time because that set-up was so good I wanted put out a heads up. I think the bulk of you that read my blog are here for net-net's and value plays. It's not always easy for me to post up an entry for a net-net trade in real-time on the same day so I might just do these watches. I don't keep as close an eye on net-net's and deep value day to day as I do my other watchlists. I trade a lot of different strategies.

I brought up earlier that I want to start charging a yearly or monthly subscription for my net-net picks. If I go that route it will still be months off. You will also have the opportunity to track my progress better before deciding if $5-$8 a month is worth it. As you can see since 2008 it has been going well and I've actually even stepped up my proficiency lately.

I've only been following net-net's since 2007 and have made really big progress since just 2008 in them. I have kind of gotten in a groove on which ones to drill down on with the fundamental analysis and focus on. Incorporating technical analysis as a tool in my various strategies has also been very significant. I am a very different investor and trader with net-net's and approach them differently than most investors who work in them. I believe that has really helped me identify some of the best performers better.

full disclosure: no positions

August 8, 2009

Respect The Trend Line














Counter to anticipated breakdown. Hammer followed by hammer on higher volume. continued...




























Counter to anticipated breakdown. Bullish signal.















































full disclosure:no positions

July 30, 2009

Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil has really been trading well on technicals lately. It's actually been trading on technicals to the T. So easy to read the important spots. Here is an older technical trade set-up on oil that turned into a good trade for me.

I was actually going to post this a day ago the night before the beating it took yesterday. Sorry about that. Anyway, I actually missed the trade because I wasn't watching oil.

The first circle on the left is a somewhat weak shooting star candle. Just means sellers were particularly strong by the end of the day. Buyers were not in control. The significance was it was at the peak of price resistance. Next circle. Big doji right at resistance. Very bearish. The doji means there was a battle between buyers and sellers and it reflects major indecision in the marketplace. When a doji occurs at the extreme end of a trend it often indicates a reversal in trend. I noticed going back a lot of months a doji was a good signal of an earlier trend change to. Both of these clues taken together leads the chart to read more downside. It definitely happened after that doji. Yesterday was a huge drop. That day isn't on this chart but USL closed at 35.50. I think oil finished at 62 a barrel.

Also, if you are going to go long on oil for a longer term trade from what I understand USL tracks better than USO because of the way they rollover the contracts.















disclosure: no position USL

July 24, 2009

Dow Jones Index Technical Analysis

I pulled out a longer term chart of the Dow and there is what looks like a potential rounding bottom formation and failed signal on this last breakdown. Both of these are bullish. The fundamentals are hard for me to get a hold of here on a lot of stocks and the economy. I'd say stock prices are more likely to be overvalued fundamentally. I also strongly believe we will be in a range-bound market for many years. I'd be very surprised if we saw new highs on the indices anytime this year or next year. I'd actually be scared because I fear what the next crisis will be like. I think the economy and stocks should have cooled off and consolidated with the savings and loan crisis at the least.

All of that totally conflicts with the current market forces that are driving stock prices higher. I don't think market forces are always intelligent but using technicals can give me a better read on the short and mid-term direction. I don't have much experience with the indices technically so I'm treading pretty lightly here. One type of bottom formation is a rounding bottom. It looks very similar to the long term chart on the S&P and Dow. Confirmation would be about 10,000 on the Dow.






























I like this next one the most right here. We were stuck in that range from May until just recently when it looked like the market was going to breakdown. The arrow points to that move. We actually did make a new low there below the chop. Then those sellers and skeptics got wiped out as the market forced them higher and prevented a breakdown. That was the failed signal. What that means is the strength here is very strong. If it can't go lower we can only go higher technically. This is beginning to be confirmed as new highs are being made out of this range signaling more upside potential. If we hold these highs or retest and run there could be much more upside in this rally. Really though, a no brainer time to go bullish and get long was when the failed breakout pushed above the trend support line. I didn't even think about the failed signal because I was expecting more lows and didn't flip the picture around which this chart says to do.






July 23, 2009

Top Short Watches

Congratulations to anyone that saw my Twitter post that GAEC was going to tank. I put that alert up a couple days ago before the annihilation when the stock was at $2.20s. The stock crashed today to $1.10 and closed at $1.60.


These are some of my top short watches.














FRZ sells ice cubes. See a pattern here?














Newspaper company.














Another newspaper














Yet another






























full disclosure: no positions

July 21, 2009

Festival of Stocks at Modern Graham

Check out Modern Graham and the festival of stocks for some investing articles. My post I did on IFON and LDIS is there. I just took off my IFON for a gain of 20%. Post coming up on that and on my 2009 net-net performance.

Net-Net IFON Trade










I'm glad I learned technical analysis because it really helped me out with IFON. Actually, the way it is going right now it may have been the difference between a nice gain and tiny profit or loss. I used that red trend line(in my platform though) to see that the bull run was still alive after it had fallen back to $1 and slowly started creeping up around the same trend line. After I longed it at $1.58 all I did was watch it continue up the line. As it approached the $1.99 resistance from the other week(first red line) without breaking it strong intraday I saw the potential for a double top and pull-back. Not worth the risk of loosing the profits because of that possibility so far into this run it has had. I actually sold it yesterday at 1.92 before that last red day on the chart which is today's action. This exit looks about perfect right now because yesterday IFON only hit a high of 1.96. And right now it is looking like that was the end.

It very well could get a push over $2 but there is just something about those round numbers. Notice it never traded at $2. And I noticed that the buying has been coming every day and that had to end eventually. Drew that with a black circle. I was also thinking about the valuation. No longer in net-net territory here and not the kind of net-net I know well enough to run past that valuation. A buy right around $1 off that pull-back would have been sweet in retrospect because the technicals were there for it to be had but I'm happy with this trade. I had a loss today chasing a momo penny stock so this is offsetting the loss.



full disclosure: no position

July 20, 2009

Net-Net FSI International FSII On Move

I was looking through some scans and this chart stuck out. I drew the resistance line for the range it has been in.














This breakout looked interesting so I checked out some fundamentals. The stock happened to be a net-net. I think it actually rings a bell as a perennial net even though I don't scan for net current asset stocks as often as I used to. Unfortunately, it is a semi and I hate the history of its fundamentals. The fact that someone is buying this here on more than its average volume and taking it up is interesting. I'm thinking that someone may be coming in late? I've noticed some micro-caps like PXG would get accumulated after the bigger companies in the sector all got rotated into. I guess that would make sense because naturally the street is going to go after the Microsoft's first because of the liquidity then when that is exhausted and they still have money to put to work the only place left is smaller market caps.

Hard to find much good going on here. This is possibly better. "The Company intends to manage its operations with a goal to end fiscal 2009 with greater than $10 million in cash, restricted cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities." There is no long-term debt but there has been declining revenue growth and income for years.

Not very excited with the little info I have on the company fundamentally. Just watching this one right now. This isn't a good stock to invest in surely. To trade. Possbily. The technicals point to more potential upside with this rounding bottom and breakout if it holds another day or so. I've been up as much as 6% or so so far in net-net IFON. So far the stock is holding up well.

full disclosure: no position in FSII, long IFON

July 16, 2009

Net-Net in Play, Stock Daytrading Watches

I noticed these two net-net's awhile back because of the nice uptrend they were in and just longed one of them. I longed IFON at $1.58 because it is doing what I wanted to see. I wanted to see a bull flag with a good signal like I mentioned in that other post.


Well, I've missed a lot of this move off the flag but I feel good here because there were some big blocks of shares coming in today. Not to mention this is a tech name and a net-net play to boot. Thing is this is a high beta stock so it's probably just going to ride with the market good or bad like it has so far. I've got my exit scoped out and it will be if it breaks below this trend line it is in right now probably. I might also think about stopping out if it cracks below 1.20 because this is more of a key area right now.

LDIS is holding up well and just got a flurry of big volume days recently. I longed that one in this portfolio tracker I'm going to be tracking my net-net performance with. I had to enter a symbol to start up the account. I would have preferred to buy LDIS right here at .73ish on whatever fill I could get. From here on out I will always make a post before I place a buy in that tracking portfolio. I think this should be viewable by anyone even without an account there. Let me know if you can't view that page. I put up a great watchlist for daytrading and even some swing trading on my twitter page. It has been really good past couple days. http://twitter.com/StockPursuit


















full disclosure: long IFON

July 14, 2009

Borders BGP, LivePerson LPSN Quick Look

I'd imagine forward EPS estimates are hard to get very accurate on. BGP is really volatile intraday. Good for daytrading. Consolidating now.















Stock didn't want to take out and hold resistance. PE Multiple looked a little rich. Didn't look that rich on asset valuation. My bias long-term on the stock is it goes much lower because of the business and the consumer but this thing keeps making higher lows on this uptrend here. Retail sales are later this morning. Good watch.















LPSN forward earnings estimates have been boosted. This one is holding that new support well. Very nice uptrend. Has been getting upgraded because of low valuation vs peers.


















full disclosure: no positions

July 12, 2009

Stock Pursuit Ultra Links

Some good summary of some of the core principles of value investing. I left a couple comments on value investing in the comments section. Using fundamentals on the future and sometimes even the past will get you into trouble a lot. Most of the time I feel you are either a total contrarian or dead.


Simmons below wants to change some things. Yes, Glass Steagall! I read my college history paper thoughts on the present at the bottom here a couple times since the panic...I really was on to this crisis there...and my China call. Maybe if I remind myself and type this enough I'll figure out what held me back from selling my shirt to leverage up on shorts last year.

If you Google " 1907 Crash " that paper is 2nd out of over 1 million just to Wikipedia. It ranks for some other keywords to. When the crisis was raging at its height last year I got dozens of hits a day for those keywords as people were freaking out I guess. Funny as the stock market bounced a little the searches went to almost none a month. These past few days I've gotten 2 or so views a day and there was an increase before the sell-off. Could be insignificant and spurious correlation but interesting.
Ideas for fixing the $11 TRILLION of debt the US owes


Half the volume on the exchanges now is program trading and Goldman's system might have gotten out. I heard Goldman is notorious for manipulating Level II with disguising size.


Paul van Eeden is right again


Mohnish Pabrai lecture at Columbia U

July 9, 2009

Family Dollar FDO

Family Dollar FDO looks like growth at a reasonable price and is still a recession resistant company. Institutions really loaded up yesterday with some nice blocks. That volume was higher than it has been for 5 months.

Forward EPS is looking like atleast $2.20 so there is a 14 PE multiple. EPS growth will probably be low double digits. I think it could easily make it to 34 a share. Not sure how much follow through there will be if the market takes a major dive here. I'd bet on 34 atleast though. I like this stock here. click below or post title to continue

I like the steady uptrend that always reacts to the trend lines I drew. The circles I made are gap up days. Very consistently after a strong gap up day like we had yesterday and big volume spike the stock has kept getting picked up. Guess what this gap up and volume spike on trend line support yesterday tells me the stock is going to do? Take that with the fundamentals and this is a good entry.

















full disclosure: no position

July 8, 2009

Oil Double Short DTO ETF

Oil is dead right now technically. I put my DTO oil double short ETF entry up on Twitter the other day. I put it on at 89.50. I noticed there was a messy double top and that oil was a leading indicator of the stock market on the way up. I'm real bearish here on stocks because nothing seems to have really changed enough. On the chart I also noticed oil made a big breakdown on a gap day that I drew the arrow to around 35 which is a powerful signal. I entered the trade on that breakdown gap. There was actually a gap down the day before to which was key as well.















I drew some key support lines. It looks like it is already starting to take out the next support at 33. I'd imagine there will be a little bounce here soon. I'll probably tighten my stop loss here tomorrow or just take my profit.




full disclosure: long DTO

July 6, 2009

Net Cash Stock MATH Special Situation

Thanks to a reader who left a comment on MathStar MATH in the last post. They look poised to liquidate for $1.25-1.40 a share. Tiberius Capital just upped the offer to $1.25 a share this morning. It's 7:58 am EST right now. Stock closed at $1.18 Friday. I just found a couple more net cash potentials one seemed to be in the liquidation process. I'll post them up later.


full disclosure: no position at time of writing

May 17, 2009

Great Investor Quotes from John Maynard Keynes, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Jason Zweig

There is this saying, "A foolish man learns from his mistakes. A wise man learns from other peoples mistakes." Many great investors and intellectual minds have given some great advice. Why not learn from them?

"To carry ones eggs in a great number of baskets without having time or opportunity to discover how many have holes in the bottom is the surest way of increasing risk and loss."

-John Maynard Keynes

Focus investing before Buffett. What you can get from this quote is that over-diversifying or even diversifying without having the "opportunity" to do the right analysis is foolish and will hurt returns.


Warren Buffett
Buffett was a student of Benjamin Graham and Graham had a big influence on him as an investor. He always kept Graham's teachings but Phil Fisher and Charlie Munger had a big influence on him later.


Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.

-Warren Buffett

Paying attention to contemporary theories like beta, volatility, risk of loss are barriers to the investor that knows what they are doing and has a sound thesis for buying a stock. Are so called growth stocks riskier than so called value stocks? What does risk mean? The market is not efficient, just do your damn homework! When Buffett bought The Washington Post you could have sold it to many investors for more than the market price but beta said it was risky. Is buying a $1 for $.60 risky just because the price fluctuates? No!


"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. The academic world, if anything, has actually backed away from the teaching of value investing over the last 30 years. It's likely to continue that way. Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace, and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper."

-Warren E. Buffett from speech at Columbia Business School 1984

This is from an essay by Warren Buffett in response to disproving the efficient market theory. He showed the market beating results of all the students of Ben Graham and proved that it is no coincidence. I really recommend that speech "The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville." Excerpts are all over the Internet. "The Intelligent Investor" I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

-Warren Buffett

Armed with a contrarian view an investor who finds real value in stocks others are scared to own will do well. Fear and greed cloud investing judgement and will always be around to be taken advantage of.


The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch.

I think this is a great quote not only for professional investors but for the individual investor. The individual investor can sit on a bunch of cash or not invest much in an over-valued market. They aren't always invested like fund managers who have to be as well as diversified. If a small investor sees an opportunity they can put as much as they please into a stock. I think this also applies to buying great companies at great prices, what Buffett loves to do. Sure you can get a good price every year or so in some great companies but it may take some big bad news or a slip-up by the company to get that great long-term price.

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is usually the reputation of the business that remains intact."

The competitive landscape and how businesses live doesn't have mercy on great managers. Don't put to much faith in management to help a poor company. To much else is involved. This is a little off the topic of the quote but management can be underestimated and can do powerful things to companies. Just look at Apple Computer and how it has changed over the last 6 year.

"At some point in its life, almost every stock is a bargain; at another time, it will be expensive. Although there are good and bad companies, there is no such thing as a good stock; there are only good stock prices, which come and go. "

-Jason Zweig

Exploiting the inefficient market works. One can't get to attached to the stock price. It is just a price. The value is what one should concentrate on and understand how the market gets greedy and gives a bad price and how it gets fearful and gives a good price.

Benjamin Graham
"Confronted with the challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto: Margin of Safety."

-Benjamin Graham

Calculating intrinsic value of a stock and company is not precise so if you can allow for some discrepancy you will do fine. It also means that even if you are right a margin of safety will increase ones returns and is a sound strategy. It definitely applied to his net quick liquidation stock portfolio he held but to other investments as well. Would you rather pay $10,000 for a $10,000 car or $6,600?

"The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgment."
-Ben Graham

"In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long-term it is a weighing machine."

-Ben Graham

The market is not efficient, eventually the true value of a company will be reflected by the stock price. I have actually struggled with this idea that the business fundamentals have to be reflected by the stock price over a year or so. I think this quote applies to the lifetime of a stock and company but stocks are a reflection of the future discounted to the present. Yes, eventually the stock price will catch up to value with a buyout or say a huge panic induced fall or a bankrupt companies shares trading for 0 but years can pass until then. This quote also reinforces the psychology behind stock prices and that fear can be exploited if you look into it.

Peter Lynch


"Stockpicking is both an art and a science, but too much of either is a dangerous thing. A person infatuated with measurement, who has his head stuck in the sands of the balance sheets, is not likely to succeed. If you could tell the future from a balance sheet, then mathematicians and accountants would be the richest people in the world by now."

-Peter Lynch

You have to understand the dynamic environment of business and economics and understand how to invest and at the right prices. You have to take everything into account but not every ratio, analysis, possible short-coming is the end all. Experience and knowing WHAT math to put the most emphasis on is the most important part of investing in stocks.


"Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike"

-Ben Graham

I have only read a newer version which is really good of The Intelligent Investor Security Analysis,The Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing and Peter Lynch's first book One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market. I only read Beating the Street.

This is a good book with Buffett quotes, Warren Buffett Speaks: Wit and Wisdom from the World's Greatest Investor.

May 6, 2009

What's Really Up With Oil? Simple Economics? Paul Van Eeden

Paul Van Eeden about monetary policy of the FED





February 3, 2009

Gold Penny Stocks List

I think depending on how good one is at forecasting gold prices in the future a lot of these in this gold penny stock list could be long-term holds. However, I think the recent run-up in gold stocks could allow them to fall just as fast as they rose. I only like this gold stocks list for possibly finding short-term trades. I like to use a tight stop loss and quick profit taking because buying penny stocks can be risky.

Gold Stocks List
Augusta Resource Corp. AZC $80 mil market cap has been a little left behind in the gold and metal frenzy until these past few days.













Golden Star Resources GSS $427 mil gold penny stock













Great Basin Gold GBG $402 mil Nice hammer. Buyers look like they want a lot more.













US Gold UXG volume could be a little overdone soon














Vista Gold Corp. VGZ Interesting hammer. Volume doesn't look overdone.














So I think these may turn out to be cheap penny stocks if gold is up and they can be a speculative trade with good risk management. I really love penny stocks and penny stock picks. Are penny stocks a good investment? In most cases in my opinion no. Profits should always be taken or losses cut in my opinion.

If you're asking yourself,how do I buy a gold etf? or how do I buy gold as an investment? you will need a stock broker. These accounts are easy to set up by oneself. This is my favorite broker to buy penny stocks online and the one that I use right now because of the low flat commission.



Related

New analysis in this Gold Video

Some Gold Market key levels to watch for

A gold stocks list to consider.


full disclosure: no positions