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July 14, 2009

Borders BGP, LivePerson LPSN Quick Look

I'd imagine forward EPS estimates are hard to get very accurate on. BGP is really volatile intraday. Good for daytrading. Consolidating now.















Stock didn't want to take out and hold resistance. PE Multiple looked a little rich. Didn't look that rich on asset valuation. My bias long-term on the stock is it goes much lower because of the business and the consumer but this thing keeps making higher lows on this uptrend here. Retail sales are later this morning. Good watch.















LPSN forward earnings estimates have been boosted. This one is holding that new support well. Very nice uptrend. Has been getting upgraded because of low valuation vs peers.


















full disclosure: no positions

July 12, 2009

Stock Pursuit Ultra Links

Some good summary of some of the core principles of value investing. I left a couple comments on value investing in the comments section. Using fundamentals on the future and sometimes even the past will get you into trouble a lot. Most of the time I feel you are either a total contrarian or dead.


Simmons below wants to change some things. Yes, Glass Steagall! I read my college history paper thoughts on the present at the bottom here a couple times since the panic...I really was on to this crisis there...and my China call. Maybe if I remind myself and type this enough I'll figure out what held me back from selling my shirt to leverage up on shorts last year.

If you Google " 1907 Crash " that paper is 2nd out of over 1 million just to Wikipedia. It ranks for some other keywords to. When the crisis was raging at its height last year I got dozens of hits a day for those keywords as people were freaking out I guess. Funny as the stock market bounced a little the searches went to almost none a month. These past few days I've gotten 2 or so views a day and there was an increase before the sell-off. Could be insignificant and spurious correlation but interesting.
Ideas for fixing the $11 TRILLION of debt the US owes


Half the volume on the exchanges now is program trading and Goldman's system might have gotten out. I heard Goldman is notorious for manipulating Level II with disguising size.


Paul van Eeden is right again


Mohnish Pabrai lecture at Columbia U

July 9, 2009

Family Dollar FDO

Family Dollar FDO looks like growth at a reasonable price and is still a recession resistant company. Institutions really loaded up yesterday with some nice blocks. That volume was higher than it has been for 5 months.

Forward EPS is looking like atleast $2.20 so there is a 14 PE multiple. EPS growth will probably be low double digits. I think it could easily make it to 34 a share. Not sure how much follow through there will be if the market takes a major dive here. I'd bet on 34 atleast though. I like this stock here. click below or post title to continue

I like the steady uptrend that always reacts to the trend lines I drew. The circles I made are gap up days. Very consistently after a strong gap up day like we had yesterday and big volume spike the stock has kept getting picked up. Guess what this gap up and volume spike on trend line support yesterday tells me the stock is going to do? Take that with the fundamentals and this is a good entry.

















full disclosure: no position

July 8, 2009

Oil Double Short DTO ETF

Oil is dead right now technically. I put my DTO oil double short ETF entry up on Twitter the other day. I put it on at 89.50. I noticed there was a messy double top and that oil was a leading indicator of the stock market on the way up. I'm real bearish here on stocks because nothing seems to have really changed enough. On the chart I also noticed oil made a big breakdown on a gap day that I drew the arrow to around 35 which is a powerful signal. I entered the trade on that breakdown gap. There was actually a gap down the day before to which was key as well.















I drew some key support lines. It looks like it is already starting to take out the next support at 33. I'd imagine there will be a little bounce here soon. I'll probably tighten my stop loss here tomorrow or just take my profit.




full disclosure: long DTO

July 6, 2009

Net Cash Stock MATH Special Situation

Thanks to a reader who left a comment on MathStar MATH in the last post. They look poised to liquidate for $1.25-1.40 a share. Tiberius Capital just upped the offer to $1.25 a share this morning. It's 7:58 am EST right now. Stock closed at $1.18 Friday. I just found a couple more net cash potentials one seemed to be in the liquidation process. I'll post them up later.


full disclosure: no position at time of writing