October 10, 2023

Global Equity Indices Now All Weaking

I've been tracking a few countries that have had very resiliant stock markets in the second half of this year. We all know the U.S. equity market has had a major pull-back. Well, up until a month or so ago for Vietnam or just this week in some there has been relative strength. Others include Turkey and UAE even with a declining U.S. market. Vietnam finally had a technical correction in the end of September and UAE and Turkey yesterday. Turkey is still near it's highs on the year however.

Vietnam is still one of my favorite long-term investment prospects with their superior GDP growth and forecasts. Below are the respective charts of these countries equity indices. First is the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) that is near lows on the year.

The Vietnam (VNM) pull-back was pretty forcefull off the highs in September.

UAE just had a big red day coinciding with the geopolitical events and conflict. I expect to see more short-term downside here.

Lastly, beginning to weaken Turkey (TUR). I see an opportunity for a short on this market with uptrend levels being broken and the fact it hasn't had a significant pull-back yet. Also, there is the proximity to the conflict that just started in the region that may be bringing some uncertainty to the market there.

I see a short setup or a long put options setup in Teva Pharma (TEVA) based in Israel. I noticed the IZRL ETF that is the Israel Pharma ETF took a large downside move and has downside momentum going off a big gap down.

There is also a very good short setup in (TKC) Turkcell a Turkey company that has just come off a clear bear flag and is making new lows.