Is Bitcoin Stock a Good Buy?

The online currency Bitcoin has seen its price skyrocket lately. This has spawned a lot of other cryptocurrencies and over the counter stocks. One such liquid stock is Bitcoin Investment Trust GBTC. Is now a good time to buy bitcoin? I believe it is currently in bubble territory. It is heating up right now. There's mania. It's going to be like any bubble in history. The bubble isn't over yet but its not prudent to risk a big investment right now.

I anticipate a major crash at some point soon. The crash will be a great buying opportunity of Bitcoin itself. The chart analysis is telling me the end of the run isn't here yet, however it is getting closer. I alerted GBTC on my Twitter in early May. If you aren't following me on Twitter check it out!

Market Direction, ETF's

Major stock market indices continue to consolidate. It is prudent to diversify and take some risk off. Instead of traditional hedging stratagies like shorting I see more opportunity in low beta vehicles. This allows one to continue to stay bullish and capture any further market gains while hedging slightly. I really like difersifing onto gold GLD, US Treasuries via ETF TLT and alternative ETF CGW.

Technically gold and Treasuries are clearing resistance here and are moving inversly to the major indices. Water ETF CGW is also very uncorrelated to the market over the past few weeks. If there is a major crash history shows US Treasuries to be the best place for safety. In 2008 us treasuries surged. It also seems reasonable to allocate some of this bond position into foreign bonds.

I believe these three ETF's can add some diversity to a portfolio while giving it some protection as well.

This Is Sector Rotation

The sector rotation is going out of big tech and into financials, healthcare, possibly defense and transportation. This is essentially a strong bull market move. It's interesting tech is not leading the way but people are obviously positioning for the presidency and congress. I was wondering if the fall in tech had something to do with possible tariffs coming on tech companies in Asia if we start taxing China. I think it might have something to do with that but its just capital going from one sector to others here regardless.

The call I made here on the blog to buy biotech and financials was pretty epic the other day. Biotech is outperforming big-time. The other macro thing going on here is long term US treasuries are continuing to crash. Ticker TBT is the way to go as I have been talking about here for some time.

After surveying some scans and putting things together I have a great watchlist. I really like this small-cap Scorpio Bulkers SALT. It's a shipper. Breakout on trend on high unusual volume, earnings guidance is trending up and is improving. "I have to be able to draw it in crayon" -Peter Lynch

HEAR needs 1.45 to start to clear this long flag.

On the short side I like HADV EA GORO short. From Twitter Marc Lehman ‏@markflowchatter Sell side desk indicating 2 leading $EA titles are being discounted 40% at Target and Walmart = slow pre orders for holiday sales

Net Current Asset Stock STLY

Stanley Furniture (STLY) is a well known brand in the furniture industry. With the stock just around a $1.00 a share it's below net current asset value or quick liquidation value. Because a lot of their assets are in furniture inventory this isn't a true "liquidation" value. The margin of safety would peg the stock much lower than net current assets. This is still a compelling net-net. It is a good one I believe if only because it is not a perennial one. Net current asset stocks that suddenly become this cheap that are retail with a good brand name often work out.

Net current assets are 19.2 mil. Market cap is 16 mil. I read the last quarterly and its just not being managed well. They have some apparently short-term supply chain issues. It's a decent net-net especially if they can turn it around any. Things are going poorly at the moment. They have cashed out life insurance policies to raise cash. This is as much a turnaround play as a value play. That's something to keep in mind.

The Stock Market Amid Elections

The major US equity markets have been consolidating for days going into this past weekend. Today, November 7th we are seeing a surge in high beta names and corporate bonds. I strongly believe this is a clear signal that this recent downturn was simply a bull flag. It's not to late to back up the truck long equities for the rest of the year. I especially like financials via the etf (XLF) and the biotech sector with (IBB). Financials are breaking out here. Biotech has just put in a confirmed pipe bottom formation near multi-year support. I see confirmation of follow through in equities in looking at high yield corporate bonds. They gaped up big in the morning. A Hillary Clinton or Trump presidency will be pro banks and financials.

full disclosure: long UYG and BIB the double long XLF and IBB etfs