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Showing posts with label Precious Metals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Precious Metals. Show all posts

July 18, 2019

Gold Play Setting Up

I've been posting on Twitter about the technical setup forming on gold. I'm long some GLD I picked up a couple weeks ago or so. I'm going to buy more gold via an ETF or maybe even a leveraged ETF or mining ETF if gold starts to breakout again. I suspect if the FED cuts rates at all gold is going to rocket and not look back. I'm watching the futures themselves to see what happens of this triangular bull flag. The physical trust ETFs and some gold mining stocks are really running already. JNUG is a big breakout. Lots of breakouts like on CEF, AG, PSLV etc.

December 26, 2014

Net-Net PRLS Update and Metals Setup

I've been writing on Peerless PRLS here on the blog for years and in the last post on it I called it one of the most compelling net current asset stocks out there. They recently made an acquisition and now have a cash buyout offer for $7.00 a share. I talked on the phone with Peerless PRLS Chairman and CEO Timothy Brog five years ago. He's been very committed and patient in adding shareholder value with this company.

Metals are on trend support. I have a buy stop order in too long JNUG at 21.80.  Crude oil has a setup as well. There is a triangular consolidation on this flag/pennant over the last few days. If crude continues to crash I have a buy stop order at 74 in to short oil with the ultrashort ETF SCO.

 


September 24, 2014

What I've Been Doing And Looking At

Greetings from Bull Market USA. The bull market capital of the world. Where low interest rates reign forever! Wheeee! In all seriousness however, I don't think Japan's lost decade has much on our QE. We've done better in my opinion. A few years ago everyone was predicting something along the lines of a Japan post asset bubble collapse stagnation. That is what they had in the 90s. Our true collapse was really in the wake of the tech bubble bursting in the year 2000. Atleast when it comes to the economy and equites. Yes, that was the secular stock market bubble that had been going since the early 80s. So I don't think comparing Japan and the USA was really apples to apples anyway. The other expectation Austrian economists had was serious inflation following QE. There was definitely some inflation as evident commodity prices but the dollar inflation seems gone now. Just look at the gold price. Gold and the dollar are always completely inverse. Gold is still crashing. I'm not sure what is going to happen from here.

History would say that if rates stay low for a long period of time there will be significant inflation ala the 70s inflation. Only Paul Volcker could stop it when he effectively let the market set rates at 20%. Could you imagine that today? So far things are going pretty well with the macro here. Doesn't hurt to be hedged though.

To me a good hedge on low rates is to be long precious metals.  I actually bought some more silver bullion recently around $21 an ounce. I got some Engelhard Silver Rounds on Apmex.com. I've always been pleased with my orders with them and I recommend them. They are one of the top 2 respected online metals dealers. So far I have Silver Eagles and the Engelhards. I'd like to get some gold Krugerrands soon and some Palladium.

I longed some emerging Asian stocks via the Fidelity Emerging Asia (FSEAX) mutual fund in my Roth IRA. I like the Goldman Sachs Emerging Debt Fund (GSDAX) also and have it on my watchlist along with the I-Shares International Real Estate Fund (IFGL). All of these funds have low expense ratios and similar or better performance vs their benchmark index.

High Yield Stocks
I also have some high yield equites on my watchlist. Whether stuff keeps falling or not these look good to me too. The first is my favorite REIT. It's not one of those sketchy adjustable rate mortgage REIT's or anything like that. Those mortgage REITs are going to blow up when rates go up. There's probably a reason they are all yielding 9 to 11%. I like these simple ones.

One like Sun Communities (SUI) which is just mobile homes and RV's that have great cash flow. Sun has increased the dividend consistently and currently is yielding around 5%. Shareholder equity has been growing the past couple years along with revenue and earnings. The chart is a breakout too.

UMH Properties (UMH) is the second REIT. UMH is yielding 7% and has a consistently rising dividend history along with revenue and earnings. This one has a smaller market cap at just $215 million.

Another high yield stock I like is Energy Transfer Partners (ETP). This is a diversified natural gas pipeline company that also sells gasoline and runs retail convenience stores. ETP's current dividend yield is 6%. The PEG ratio (price to earnings growth) is a very nice .69.

February 19, 2014

Oil and Silver Position

I bought the oil ETF UCO awhile back. This position trade is working out well. It's up 11% now as oil has climbed. I also bought some Silver American Eagle coins as a long-term investment from Apmex.com recently. Gold and silver have both fallen a lot from the highs. It wouldn't even surprise me if they fell more. But, I don't really care as I'm just looking to build a long-term position. Both charts of course went parabolic and are selling off. Silver looked like it came down a lot more than gold has so far. That's one of the reasons I started in the silver.

January 10, 2013

Gold Technical Analysis January 2013

Gold is still in a secular uptrend. The yearly charts are a lot more choppy. There was a spike bottom in the chart below that is getting retested. I don't see any good signals here because of how choppy the long-term chart is. Crude oil is equally range-bound and in an uptrend the past couple weeks.

December 28, 2012

Some Cool Economic and Market Videos

Economic discussion on currency and gold from the most unique economics blog on the internet. Below is a short talk about market cycles, bubble jumping and the challenges of pure investing. The video quality is bad so just listen to it. Part 1 Part 2 Part 3

December 24, 2010

Silver Analysis

Even after this run-up I see some very bullish signals setting up in the price action recently.

Fundamentally, the bullish case also remains as Ben Bernanke and the FED has pledged to keep rates low for some time and also because they have embarked on QE 2. I think it is very likely we will see QE 3,4,5 etc. eventually. Especially considering Japan is still back at a zero interest rate policy and doing even more QE here now 20 years later. There's also a lot of stories going around on JP Morgan's possible short covering going on and just how big some of these traders positions are. Whether or not there is a massive short squeeze taking place or about to take place I'm not sure but it certainly would just add to the bullish case.

Silver Chart Analysis















There was a much larger consolidation from May through August that came before the big run we've experienced recently. This recent one is a lot smaller and tighter. Old resistance has been retested successfully where the arrow points. There was major resistance at those levels. Another bullish thing is there has been a flurry of hammer and small doji candles here around trend support. In the past months there would be hammers off trend support right before big runs.

Some potentially bearish technical things about the chart are that trend support was broken. Silver was trending very well for months but that cracked. After such a run though trend support widens so this isn't a hugely bearish signal. It is more of a neutral one at this point.

In final, if silver can push up a bit from here and hit 29.57 I see significant upside. If it fails to follow through I'll switch and be short biased.

October 26, 2010

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold is pushing up around resistance in the 1,000's. This area it is approaching has been rock solid resistance as you can see from the first chart. A technician that uses normal trend lines and not an internal trend line will fail to read this market correctly in my opinion. That first line is way to high and was a result of momentum and emotions in the market. The arrows show a range that it tends to trade in. A resistance level it finds easier is in the second chart with the top resistance line.
















Of course to clear all this resistance though it is going to have to take out all these spike tops. The grand daddy chart is last. You don't want to miss this.















This chart below is the chart to be looking at on gold.
















This chart sends a powerful signal. It is saying that it is more than likely that gold the commodity will continue higher. Let me rephrase that. Very likely. Let me explain what I see.

The bottom red line is golds support trend line. In lamens terms the price keeps bouncing off of it and it goes higher. This is bullish and good for buyers. Price was consolidating off that trend line. The interesting and important thing here is the triangular consolidation that has taken place.

I want to wait a week or two to see what happens as gold tests its former highs. Any congestion would be bullish. If it breaks out I think it still would be a good idea to put on a position or with stocks or ETF's. There is a possibility that this could be a failed signal. In that case it would be a good short on a move to the low 900's. But the technical picture right now is buy, especially on a new high in the low 1,000 area. I'm not sure how the fundamentals support a major run. I feel like the best time to play it is if we see hyper-inflation. I can't ignore market forces though with the technical analysis. China and other foreign countries who hold US debt could up to something?



full disclosure:no positions in gold commodities or stocks at time of writing

October 23, 2010

China Rare Earth Metals Mining Stocks

The past week or so there has been a macro play on China tightening supply of rare elements. The mining sector in general has been extremely hot this year of course off the back of metals like silver and gold rising. This latest news which I imagine is further driving speculation of supply issues has boosted the share prices of a lot of mining stocks.

Rare earth minerals have a plethora of uses from fuel, to computers, and even lasers. This company called China Direct Industries CDII does magnesium mining and has rights on zinc mines. The balance sheet has $49 million in net tangible asset value against a current market cap of just $50 million.

full disclosure: no position in CDII

March 13, 2010

Silver Mining Penny Stocks List

Silver Stocks list

Timberline Resources (TLR) is into mining for gold, silver, zinc, and copper deposits. They've had some impressive revenue growth over the past 3 years. However no net income yet annually. Last quarter was net income positive though year over year with a profit of $241,061. Technically, right now it is still along the trend line and at the end of a triangle consolidation.

Kimber Resources (KBX) announced a new mineral resource estimate that has significant tonnage of high grade gold-silver mineral resources with excellent metallurgical recoveries. This stock ran from .60s to 1.31 currently and still might have some momentum. It has resistance however that must be dealt with in the 1.50 area.

Mines Management Inc. (MGN) is primarily a silver mining company. The technicals look a little better now that it is trying to break out of this trading range.

Endeavour Silver (EXK) so far has seen its stock price pretty correlated to the price of silver. Out of all the silver mining penny stocks it appears pretty correlated here.

Silver Stocks to Watch
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is a very liquid vehicle and a conservative way for making an investment in silver online in the stock market.



The silver vs gold chart shows that gold is up just over 30% this year but silver is up over 60%. Gold has gone practically parabolic currently. Is silver overbought currently? Tough to say but technically it doesn't appear so. I think these are some silver penny stocks to watch for potential upside. In the event of a hypothetical crisis I believe silver historically has outperformed gold by a wide margin.


full disclosure:no positions

October 6, 2009

Gold Stocks List

Gold has just reached new highs of $1,043. I predicted the breakout on gold in early September and presented my thesis for anyone who reads the blog. Like I was looking for and said,"Any congestion would be bullish." Gold did congest around the former highs and that was the signal along with the triangle that telegraphed the move.

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Gold Stocks List
Some gold stocks to buy possibly I am looking at for potential quick trades soon are as follows. The following list is stocks I have picked out solely because of their technical price action. This is a gold correlated stock list but they don't always mimic the price of gold.

GRS had a breakout gap on volume.
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Steady riser
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New Gold also had a gap on volume but it needs to hold $4.30 to look like a buy.
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Metalline Mining looks like it might be late to the party. Looks good on a technical breakout.
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Why buy gold stocks? Gold is a commodity that usually has an inverse correlation with the United States dollar. If the dollar falls because of inflation or hyperinflation its purchasing power thus falls and any safe haven for capital is attractive to invest in. This is why you would want to buy gold stocks. The last time the United States experienced hyperinflation was during the 1970s. Gold went on a tear and was a great investment vehicle during those times.

More gold penny stocks for trades possibly.



full disclosure: no positions in any stocks mentioned at time of writing

February 3, 2009

Gold Penny Stocks List

I think depending on how good one is at forecasting gold prices in the future a lot of these in this gold penny stock list could be long-term holds. However, I think the recent run-up in gold stocks could allow them to fall just as fast as they rose. I only like this gold stocks list for possibly finding short-term trades. I like to use a tight stop loss and quick profit taking because buying penny stocks can be risky.

Gold Stocks List
Augusta Resource Corp. AZC $80 mil market cap has been a little left behind in the gold and metal frenzy until these past few days.













Golden Star Resources GSS $427 mil gold penny stock













Great Basin Gold GBG $402 mil Nice hammer. Buyers look like they want a lot more.













US Gold UXG volume could be a little overdone soon














Vista Gold Corp. VGZ Interesting hammer. Volume doesn't look overdone.














So I think these may turn out to be cheap penny stocks if gold is up and they can be a speculative trade with good risk management. I really love penny stocks and penny stock picks. Are penny stocks a good investment? In most cases in my opinion no. Profits should always be taken or losses cut in my opinion.

If you're asking yourself,how do I buy a gold etf? or how do I buy gold as an investment? you will need a stock broker. These accounts are easy to set up by oneself. This is my favorite broker to buy penny stocks online and the one that I use right now because of the low flat commission.



Related

New analysis in this Gold Video

Some Gold Market key levels to watch for

A gold stocks list to consider.


full disclosure: no positions