April 15, 2013

Caribou Coffee Bought By Private Equity For $340 Mil

I recently read that Caribou Coffee was purchased by a private equity company for $340 million. This is surprising yet at the same time not all that surprising to see the second biggest coffee chain next to Starbucks get bought out. People have been speculating on a buyout for years. I've been writing about Caribou Coffee (former ticker symbol CBOU) since 2009 here on the blog. I remember back in either 2009 or 2010 Caribou was actually trading for not that much over its net tangible equity value. The recent purchase price was for over 30 times earnings.

March 8, 2013

YOU On Demand Holdings (YOD) Trade Setup

YOU On Demand (YOD) has had a big sell-off and is down to $1.57 here. I like this stock a lot technically here. This is a very clean and tight symmetrical triangle bull flag. Looking at some fundamentals the market cap is $18 million. There is nothing stellar in the financial statements that I saw. Revenue growth is flat. No net income. I like the balance sheet however. I looked at quarter end Sept 2012 and the past couple years. The balance sheet is healthy. There is about $10 million in tangible assets, $22 million in total assets and total liabilities of just $13 million with just 17K in long term debt. I like what I read on the founding partners bio. This is more of a technical play and I am going to put a buy stop order in for 1.71 a share. If it breaks out above the flag I want to be long. I'm watching the consolidation on BLDP to. Something worthwhile technically may develop or it may not. That's how it goes. I'm also watching PRLS as a pure fundamentals play which has net cash per share of $2.62.

March 5, 2013

Apple AAPL Short Setup

Major indices are holding up very strong around their highs. Although, Apple (AAPL) saw a drop today of 2%. Looking at the long-term chart here one can see how AAPL likes to congest right around resistance and then breakout as it did twice in the chart below. I drew in the red lines where the consolidation occurred.

So, onto the chart now and the short setup. I see this as a particularly attractive short trade because of the failed signal. When the recent gap down got filled it was a bullish move, however, that gap fill failed because we are now back into a breakdown. Rather, the massive fade is just continuing. There is a bunch of support coming up at around 400 so we will see what happens there.

If you are like most novice investors long AAPL then this post may come as incomprehensible to expect Apple stock to drop. I would ask you one question as this applies to anyone who ventures into capital markets. Do you want to be right? Or do you want to make money?

February 21, 2013

Supernova on GNIN

I posted up GNIN last weekend as a short trade watch for Monday or Tuesday. The crash finally came on Tuesday after the stock went supernova all the way over $3.00 a share. GNIN actually printed $.42 a share today! This is a classic pump and dump chart. The volume came in out of nowhere in January and it saw a steady climb that ended in this massive fade. Incredible drop in 3 days.

February 17, 2013

Looking at Net-Net BAMM and Short Watch GNIN

Net-Net BAMM I am currently looking for some net-net's and deep asset value worth writing about. After spending some time going through a stock screen I found Books a Million (BAMM) to be one of the most compelling net current asset stocks I saw for the time being. In looking in the stock market sewers for deep value stocks one can often find somewhat of a diamond like Silver Leaf Resorts SLVF or Adams Golf ADGF were. I'm not sure if BAMM is a diamond but it is something to look at if the stock price gets a lot cheaper. So I think it is something to just watch as the price here at $2.40 is just below net current asset value.

Short Watch Green Innovations (GNIN) Green Innovations (GNIN) traded over $7 million shares Friday and is currently going full zombie. It's up from $1.00 to $2.75 just this month. It's been running everyday and buying volume is eventually going to get exhausted. It's been volatile on the way up so it will be volatile on the way down. To short a momo stock like this it's a bad idea to short when it is green (positive) on the day. It needs to crack the previous days close before it is a short setup. The setup is going to be here very soon. Could even be Monday or Tuesday.

February 6, 2013

Dry Bulk Shipping Stock SHIP

Hello folks. I put this shipper Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (SHIP) up on Twitter about a week ago after the dry bulk shipper post. SHIP is a low floater. It has a small float and it only has a market cap of $26 million. It has run especially well along with all the other shippers. It's a really good one to trade because of how volatile it is. Very high day range. It had a huge run in January from $1.20 to $2.70 a share. It just printed a hammer off this new flag. Right now it definitely looks like another flag because of the decreasing sell volume I drew the red lines over.

January 28, 2013

Old Net-Net Blonder Tongue BDR On The Move

Former net-net Blonder Tongue Labs (BDR) has 5.5 mil in net current asset value and a market cap of 9.6 million. It has always been one of those perennial net-nets. Always below and around net current asset value. Unfortunately I wasn't watching it lately. It has bottomed out as this chart shows. I circled the failed breakdown. The stock then was in breakdown mode until the lower low turned into a spike bottom. Confirmation of the failed breakdown is where I drew the arrow. Failed signals can be very powerful. The second chart is the beautiful flag it printed. The chart is real bullish here still even though I missed the perfect setups and price. I'm long biased on BDR.

January 23, 2013

Follow Up On Shippers

DRYS made the push I was looking for in the last post. That was the move. FREE still has light sell volume on this consolidation so the set-up is still there on a strong intra-day move on volume. It needs to run to atleast .26 tomorrow before it is a good set-up. It needs to atleast break above the prior days high.

January 21, 2013

Watch The Baltic Dry Index and Shippers

The Baltic Dry Index has formed a little base recently. It is far from a confirmed bottom but it has held this area very well. Very big blocks of shares have come into the shippers that haven't been seen in awhile. I really like NEWL FREE and DRYS with a long bias here. Watch FREE, DRYS and NEWL this week.

January 10, 2013

Gold Technical Analysis January 2013

Gold is still in a secular uptrend. The yearly charts are a lot more choppy. There was a spike bottom in the chart below that is getting retested. I don't see any good signals here because of how choppy the long-term chart is. Crude oil is equally range-bound and in an uptrend the past couple weeks.