August 30, 2018

Cautiously Long

I have a bunch of long positions on in my account. I'm as lean as I can be though with about 50% in cash. I am short XRT Retail with EMTY but other than that I have about 15 to 17 long positions. More than I would like to have but if the setups and opportunity are there I take them. I just put a buy stop order to snag SPY short with the 3X ETF SPXS if SPY actually tanks tomorrow. If I traded options I would be looking for some additional protection. The more the markets quickly go straight up the more likely they are to come down just as fast or faster. When the complacency becomes standard mild to severe crashes can happen. I feel like we are due another algo driven flash crash. Maybe it will be 10% higher in the S&P but it seems inevitable. Corrections are healthy. There is nothing wrong with them and no reason to not be prepared.

 I've been brainstorming what individual companies I would like to buy for the long-term the next time a major correction or bear market comes. I'll do another blog post on this soon.

August 28, 2018

Found a Net-Net

I found a deep value net-net (net current asseets - total liabilities) this week. The company is O2Micro International (OIIM). It has net current asset value of $53.7 million and a market cap around 1.95-2.00 a share of $50 mil. I found it the other day below $2.00 a share with a $50 mil market cap. It's around a $53 mil market cap now which is still a good value given the rich valuations in the overall market. OIIM's past two quarters have been profitable. The chart has good momentum as the stock is near 52 week highs. Disclosure: I have a position

August 10, 2018

Follow Me On Twitter

I'm very active on Twitter these days. I've been onto some great small-caps lately with BGSF and CVSI I alerted at 2.00 recently. I have been laying out my maco thoughts on inflation and what sectors and commodities I think it will effect. Follow me here.

May 24, 2017

Is Bitcoin Stock a Good Buy?

The online currency Bitcoin has seen its price skyrocket lately. This has spawned a lot of other cryptocurrencies and over the counter stocks. One such liquid stock is Bitcoin Investment Trust GBTC. Is now a good time to buy bitcoin? I believe it is currently in bubble territory. It is heating up right now. There's mania. It's going to be like any bubble in history. The bubble isn't over yet but its not prudent to risk a big investment right now.

I anticipate a major crash at some point soon. The crash will be a great buying opportunity of Bitcoin itself. The chart analysis is telling me the end of the run isn't here yet, however it is getting closer. I alerted GBTC on my Twitter in early May. If you aren't following me on Twitter check it out!

April 21, 2017

Market Direction, ETF's

Major stock market indices continue to consolidate. It is prudent to diversify and take some risk off. Instead of traditional hedging stratagies like shorting I see more opportunity in low beta vehicles. This allows one to continue to stay bullish and capture any further market gains while hedging slightly. I really like difersifing onto gold GLD, US Treasuries via ETF TLT and alternative ETF CGW.

Technically gold and Treasuries are clearing resistance here and are moving inversly to the major indices. Water ETF CGW is also very uncorrelated to the market over the past few weeks. If there is a major crash history shows US Treasuries to be the best place for safety. In 2008 us treasuries surged. It also seems reasonable to allocate some of this bond position into foreign bonds.

I believe these three ETF's can add some diversity to a portfolio while giving it some protection as well.

November 10, 2016

This Is Sector Rotation

The sector rotation is going out of big tech and into financials, healthcare, possibly defense and transportation. This is essentially a strong bull market move. It's interesting tech is not leading the way but people are obviously positioning for the presidency and congress. I was wondering if the fall in tech had something to do with possible tariffs coming on tech companies in Asia if we start taxing China. I think it might have something to do with that but its just capital going from one sector to others here regardless.

The call I made here on the blog to buy biotech and financials was pretty epic the other day. Biotech is outperforming big-time. The other macro thing going on here is long term US treasuries are continuing to crash. Ticker TBT is the way to go as I have been talking about here for some time.

After surveying some scans and putting things together I have a great watchlist. I really like this small-cap Scorpio Bulkers SALT. It's a shipper. Breakout on trend on high unusual volume, earnings guidance is trending up and is improving. "I have to be able to draw it in crayon" -Peter Lynch

HEAR needs 1.45 to start to clear this long flag.

On the short side I like HADV EA GORO short. From Twitter Marc Lehman ‏@markflowchatter Sell side desk indicating 2 leading $EA titles are being discounted 40% at Target and Walmart = slow pre orders for holiday sales

November 9, 2016

Net Current Asset Stock STLY

Stanley Furniture (STLY) is a well known brand in the furniture industry. With the stock just around a $1.00 a share it's below net current asset value or quick liquidation value. Because a lot of their assets are in furniture inventory this isn't a true "liquidation" value. The margin of safety would peg the stock much lower than net current assets. This is still a compelling net-net. It is a good one I believe if only because it is not a perennial one. Net current asset stocks that suddenly become this cheap that are retail with a good brand name often work out.

Net current assets are 19.2 mil. Market cap is 16 mil. I read the last quarterly and its just not being managed well. They have some apparently short-term supply chain issues. It's a decent net-net especially if they can turn it around any. Things are going poorly at the moment. They have cashed out life insurance policies to raise cash. This is as much a turnaround play as a value play. That's something to keep in mind.