You guys remember the value stock Blonder Tongue (BDR) ? It's usually been around net tangible asset value over the years. It will run up a bit one year then come back to around net tangibles. Well the stock has recently just crashed. It plummeted from over $2.00 a share to just $.77 a share. I went through the press releases on Yahoo! from the 30th and 31st on the day it crashed and couldn't find a good cause of the crash. They released quarterly results which were not to bad, not to good. I don't get it. There may be no good reason though of course and the stock is just crazy cheap for no reason. Here are the old posts on BDR. Looking back at all my notes on the stock $1.00 has been the floor for many years. At the last print it traded at $.90 Monday. This puts it at a market cap of roughly $5 million. Net current asset value is just above $5 million also. We are near net current asset value territory. I really like the stock here below $1 and might take a small position in it.
I have this other domain DynamiteStocks.com that I've held onto for awhile. Years back I used to put trading watchlists on it. I'm going to start doing that again. I just posted one up for trading day 4/7/2015. This blog will continue to be deep value focused and anything else I feel like talking about.
I've been very accurate lately with short set-ups and trading crude oil and natural gas ETF's. So I'll definitely post those if anything. Oil is to choppy for me here. To range bound. I've had success trading the breakouts and breakdowns. No doubt the energy and commodities sectors are moving off of the dollar here. It looks like the dollar is going to continue to breakdown. We will see.
Pundits will continue to go on CNBC and business new channels talking about how oil and asset prices are a function of supply and demand and even politics. We can continue to laugh at them with confidence. If you've read my blog for awhile you might remember Quantitative Easing and the Stock Market. You might even remember Why U.S. Stocks Will Rise in 2011. Those old posts just show that the FED has controlled asset prices. To some people that's old news but to others I suppose they will never understand it. Probably the hardcore Keynesians.
Today was another FED meeting. I don't care as much about the language of the meeting as I do the market's reaction. Boy did the market react. During the meeting the dollar index practically crashed and oil rocketed up. You can see the price of oil skyrocket around 1pm below in the ETF USO. In the next chart below you will see the dollar fall dramatically at 1pm also.
I believe that without the news today crude oil was on pace to continue crashing. It had already reached the lows of 2009 and the technicals were pointing toward a strong breakdown of the chart. Based on the reaction in the currency markets I see the dollar weakening for awhile now. This is a clear "spike top" chart signal on the dollar.
The charts above are from my favorite trading platform Medved Trader. Jerry Medved was the creator of Quote Tracker which is no longer being updated and was scraped by TD Ameritrade. Check out Medved which is in beta and is free for now.
I've been bullish on the US dollar for sometime now and have been holding the dollar ETF UUP. Fundamentally with the rest of the world debasing their currency and cutting rates its not surprising to see the tremendous run we have seen in USD. I don't know how much longer this will keep up though. How are we in the US going to raise rates when the rest of the globe is cutting? The other thing is the technical side. Looking at the dollar index it has skyrocketed and is going vertical now. This can't keep up forever. I'm happy to trim off 3/4's of my UUP position into this strength on Monday. Selling 3/4's of the position will lock in the bulk of the 10% gains it gave me. I'll have a stop loss on the remaining shares.
It's very interesting to see the continued pressure the dollar strength has put on commodities, especially oil. Oil looks poised to test the lows of the winter.
The US dollar continues to rise as expected and biotech is still incredibly hot. No it is blazing hot. ZIOP from my biotech stocks list in late January is almost a double already. IBB just broke out again and it looks like more highs in a lot of these stocks is in store. I just added some to my trading watchlist for Friday the 6th. On another note my long-term positions haven't changed much. From top to bottom in percentage I'm long FSEAX Asian Emerging Markets Fund as my largest holding, second largest is PFN Pimco Income Strategy Bonds, third is UUP US Dollar Long ETF, Fourth is USL Oil ETF 12mo, fifth is PKD Parker Drilling, and last is KEG Key Energy Services. EDIT Also long LOJN LoJack and silver. Recently I added some more to the UUP long dollar position. I'm very underweight in the two oil stocks. I like all these holdings for the long-term. I may not hold them all for years though. I'm not totally happy. I really need some more diversified US exposure. I might go with a Nasdaq index ETF and Russell 2000 index ETF here soon.
The trading watchlist for Friday the 6th is LAS AXN CYTX ABTL TTI CYTK ATXH. The only short bias is ABTL. My favorite on this list is LAS. If it starts moving it very well could hit 1.50 in a couple weeks based on how it has moved in the past. With the size of the volume here on LAS I see it moving. Back in 2009 or 2010 I remember it had day after day runs of 10-30%. AXN is only good if it breaks over 1.14. If it doesn't it looks dead. All of these are speculative day trade watches.
Friday I had EXEL along with a bunch of other stocks on my watchlist. EXEL was a bull flag continuation breakout setup. 2.99 was the high of the previous run day and was the resistance level I was looking for a break of to get long. It came and printed 3.00 on decent volume. So I got long and filled at 3.00. EXEL immediately failed to hold that 3.00 and fell off the highs and slowly declined. I'm thinking it is just consolidating and the uptrend over 3.00 will start any time soon. The market makers were pretty crafty on EXEL Friday and the 3.00 was the failed breakout. I finally realized I am probably wrong on the breakout today and cut my loss at 2.88. I actually put the order in trying to get 2.91 but with the market order I got a lesser fill. When a stock is moving fast I will always use a market order especially on the entry. I would rather catch a big run with a less than favorable fill than miss the whole damn thing with a limit order. It was not a superior setup to take from the beginning because based on its past runs 3.15 - 3.20 would be the most it would go anytime soon. The risk reward wasn't really there. I also waited a bit to long to cut the loss after the 3.00 didn't hold. I think based on the setups risk reward the position was a bit oversized for me. This one is looking like a good short candidate since the 3.00 breakout failed. I put up a new post on the 27th about the direction of the USD.