February 27, 2015

Crude Oil Trade

Crude oil has been forming a trading range lately with support being particularly defined. With a steady decline right onto support I saw an opportunity to get long. Getting long right on support gave me a clear area for a mental stop loss. Not only that but the upside potential conservatively was the top of the trading range at resistance. I drew up the trading range below.

The stock I used was UCO the double long crude oil ETF. The chart of USO and CL are very similar. I bought UCO at 8.07 on the 24th of February and tweeted it on Twitter. The doji candlestick it printed on the 23rd pretty much confirmed my area of support. It just hung out and declined a little around support after I bought it. I was fine with that as all that mattered was the action off support.

The next day oil ramped up big and UCO hit an intraday high of 8.57. Along the way I sold about 3/4ths of the position at $8.28 locking in the gain. Expecting more run days I held the rest overnight. I set a sell stop loss at 8.15 and the next day stopped out of the rest of the shares at $8.15 for a slight gain. Scaling out the way I did in tranches selling 3/4ths of the position with the gain really made this trade work for me. I missed the top but caught a good gain which I'm happy with. This especially since my thesis of a run to resistance is proving wrong so far.

We'll have to see what happens with oil over the next 24-48 hours to get an idea of direction. It very well may continue higher or we could crash below support. If there is a gap down below support oil will definitely be testing the lows of the winter.