Sometimes there are strong leading indicators in markets. A leading indicator is when one market leads another. One will go up or down and the other will simply follow a little behind. The two are correlated. You can gauge the next movement by seeing what the leading indicator is doing. An example of this is crude oil and the US stock market in late February early March of 2009. Crude oil was a leading indicator for the market. In October of 2007 the Chinese stock market was a leading indicator for US markets. This year corporate bonds specifically high yield corporates are a leading indicator of the stock market. The correlation is continuing even this week. Tickers like
JNK,
HYG and
LQD are leading. Here's JNK the high yield bond ETF beginning it's trading range breakdown in early June.
The S&P 500 didn't really fall significantly until August. You could maybe argue very late June it had a scare but it held in. Still late June is far from early June. So what does this mean? Watch friggin bonds folks!
HYG and
JNK lead the way again 4 trading days ago when they started breaking down again. The market followed the very next day. We are one or two days behind now.
JNK just printed a nasty shooting star yesterday the 22nd. Bearish prints on both of these. I'm writing this early morning here on the 23rd. The downtrend is strong and intact on
HYG and
JNK. They are coming off of a clear bear flag and it appears the lows will be tested.
