Watch List

I added a couple of stocks to my watchlist. I added ROIAK DANR TTNP. I put a conditional buy order in for DANR. If it hits $.19 I hope to get filled.

TTNP looks like it might have a pop over $1.75 coming. TTNP couldn't go over $1.75 three times. Any pure funnymentals guys/gals. count it. Random chance or an emotional, important price level? Once it breaks over this resistance level I am betting it will be in play. I probably will put a conditional buy market order for $1.80 in here sometime before the market opens. The ascending triangle helps to. Almost always volatility after a triangle.

























full disclosure:no positions at time of writing

Short Stock Market With An ETF

I chickened out on my idea to short real-estate with SRS. I was spot on though on the further downside that seemed to be coming after the flag I was looking for to get short. I feel like going here with an ETF to short an index again. I like the volatility in SRS. It's prudent to wait though for more fundamental signals and technical breakdown though. So, I think I will. I think my valuation thesis makes sense and that as economic numbers will probably continue to show that this housing depression and economic recession are different than any in recent history. In other words it's hard to just get back to normal after a credit and housing bubble that lasted for many years. The only problem with a short trade for a couple days or so though I think is it could be possible that when the S&P and other indices finally correct a little the downside might be limited and they just trade sideways for weeks and months.

I was surprised and glad to see that Ben Bernanke said that businesses must be allowed to fail. I don't think he has the right framework for stopping them from becoming systemic though. I haven't read or seen his whole presentation today but it seems like he just thinks if you raise capital requirements and regulate to big to fail can be avoided? He needs to study some history if he thinks investment banks and commercial banks can exist together without major consequences to the system. Long Term Capital Management should have failed in 1998. Breaking up these ridiculous giants like Wells Fargo and Bank of America is the kind of reform that can allow firms that leverage up to fail. There's a reason my 1907 crash paper is second in a Google search for '1907 crash' only to Wikipedia.

I think our system is set up to fail now probably unfortunately though. I might post more on this as time goes by. Not sure if I should buy gold and silver bags or prepare for bartering when we can't afford these interest payments and/or they get raised.




full disclosure:no positions

Bank and Financial Stocks

I've had an eye out for anything financial lately. Especially looking for the beginning of a new run. CSGH isn't a financial I don't think but it has a great chart going for it right now. Might just run again tomorrow. Great volume spike.If anyone else has some nicely uptrending financials or ones that just had unusual volume anytime in the future post them up with the ticker in a comment anytime. Unusual volume spikes are great scans. I recently caught BRNC with one at a 5 handle and it ran to $7.












full disclosure:no positions

Swine Flu Stock Alpha Pro Tech APT

CNBC did atleast one long segment on APT this morning as part of a swine flu segment. Here is the CNBC article on them to. This $130 million market cap company had heavy volume today on a gap up. I'm going to watch for a possible double top. It looks like the chart sets up for a short if it fills this gap. The chart is unclear to me until it retests that high. It very well could continue breaking out though because of this gap and volume. Though the past two times is has a gaped up it has pulled back immediately this year.







full disclosure:no position

Stock ADPT

I put CHCI up as a watch the other day and this thing ran huge today and topped out at $.98. I didn't trade today but I hope some of you maybe saw these like VG to that I put on Twitter that ran today. LPTH was my top watch today and it ran 16% today off a easy set-up. The breakout was at $2.30 and it ran to $2.74. Net-Net MSN is holding up better than I expected. To many possible swing trades out there.

ADPT is testing around this new possible support around $3.00. It is congesting well so far which makes it seem that it might continue running. If I'm going to play it tomorrow is the day to go long. I think a good stop loss is right below $2.85. If you look on the 11th,12th and 18th $2.85 was the low of those days and important support. The likelyhood of it getting more downside when it cracks this is pretty good. So $2.83-84 is a good stop point with a profit target of $3.50-.60.














full disclosure: no position

Ben Graham Net-Net EFJI

EF Johnson Technologies EFJIMost of their business is from wireless radios. They sell wireless communications equipment with a large base of their customers being the government.

Major Customers
The U.S. Department of Defense was approximately 15%, 62% and 16% of consolidated revenues in 2008, 2007 and 2006. DRS Technologies, Sprint/Nextel, and the State of California are significant customers, representing 13%, 12% and 12%, respectively, of consolidated revenues in 2008.

Valuation
At $1.24 a share market cap is $32.74 mil and net current asset value is $39.41 mil. Net current asset valuation is a quick rough liquidation value. However, in this particular case almost 50% of NCAV (net current asset value) is comprised of inventory sitting in storage. In the event of an actual hypothetical liquidation it would very likely yield much less than the amount on the companies books.

2009 earnings per share have been boosted it appears to $.06 and a sole analyst expects $.10 for 2010. At 1.24 a share this is only about 12 times earnings and they could continue to grow over 50%. This asset valuation and trailing 2009 PE multiple of 20 seem nuts to me. Nuts meaning it might still be undervalued.

On the 15th of September volume soared and the stock flew on the back of a press release for their new Hybrid IP25 first responder radio system and 2 new military contracts for the radios on the 15th. I would have loved this stock at $1.00 because of the larger asset valuation cushion and also because of the price action. I believe the stock could have a pull-back soon which I explain in the following charts and I am going to wait a day or two to see what develops.



In the above chart we can see that there could be strong support right around $1.00.



The green line on ADX contracting worries me a little right now



It's running on heavy momo(momentum) right now being that it is hugging the upper band. Some people could take some profits soon.



The arrow on the right shows how buying volume is trending downward day to day which worries me that buyers might be getting exhausted in this round up for now atleast. Plus the doji candle two days ago and a shooting star candle Friday. The momo could very well continue for awhile but I feel more comfortable waiting just a day or two for either a pull-back or some other sign buyers are committed right now.


full disclosure: no position at time of writing

Strong KEME

I haven't traded any of those ETF's like I was thinking about like SRS or a short on the Nasdaq. This market continues to be incredible as far as the confidence in equities even with higher valuations. I'm not going to short any indices soon. I put this momentum penny stock KEME at the top of my watchlist the other day and ended up longing it at an average basis of $1.48 a share. It failed to breakout then has just seemingly re-tested and printed a hammer today. I'm looking for a breakout to sell into and add to my 7% profit so far. If it gets hung up again on the breakout and doesn't look strong I'll probably take the gain or cut it break-even to slightly down. This hammer looks really good to me though.





full disclosure:long