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July 20, 2009

Net-Net FSI International FSII On Move

I was looking through some scans and this chart stuck out. I drew the resistance line for the range it has been in.














This breakout looked interesting so I checked out some fundamentals. The stock happened to be a net-net. I think it actually rings a bell as a perennial net even though I don't scan for net current asset stocks as often as I used to. Unfortunately, it is a semi and I hate the history of its fundamentals. The fact that someone is buying this here on more than its average volume and taking it up is interesting. I'm thinking that someone may be coming in late? I've noticed some micro-caps like PXG would get accumulated after the bigger companies in the sector all got rotated into. I guess that would make sense because naturally the street is going to go after the Microsoft's first because of the liquidity then when that is exhausted and they still have money to put to work the only place left is smaller market caps.

Hard to find much good going on here. This is possibly better. "The Company intends to manage its operations with a goal to end fiscal 2009 with greater than $10 million in cash, restricted cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities." There is no long-term debt but there has been declining revenue growth and income for years.

Not very excited with the little info I have on the company fundamentally. Just watching this one right now. This isn't a good stock to invest in surely. To trade. Possbily. The technicals point to more potential upside with this rounding bottom and breakout if it holds another day or so. I've been up as much as 6% or so so far in net-net IFON. So far the stock is holding up well.

full disclosure: no position in FSII, long IFON

July 16, 2009

Net-Net in Play, Stock Daytrading Watches

I noticed these two net-net's awhile back because of the nice uptrend they were in and just longed one of them. I longed IFON at $1.58 because it is doing what I wanted to see. I wanted to see a bull flag with a good signal like I mentioned in that other post.


Well, I've missed a lot of this move off the flag but I feel good here because there were some big blocks of shares coming in today. Not to mention this is a tech name and a net-net play to boot. Thing is this is a high beta stock so it's probably just going to ride with the market good or bad like it has so far. I've got my exit scoped out and it will be if it breaks below this trend line it is in right now probably. I might also think about stopping out if it cracks below 1.20 because this is more of a key area right now.

LDIS is holding up well and just got a flurry of big volume days recently. I longed that one in this portfolio tracker I'm going to be tracking my net-net performance with. I had to enter a symbol to start up the account. I would have preferred to buy LDIS right here at .73ish on whatever fill I could get. From here on out I will always make a post before I place a buy in that tracking portfolio. I think this should be viewable by anyone even without an account there. Let me know if you can't view that page. I put up a great watchlist for daytrading and even some swing trading on my twitter page. It has been really good past couple days. http://twitter.com/StockPursuit


















full disclosure: long IFON

July 14, 2009

Borders BGP, LivePerson LPSN Quick Look

I'd imagine forward EPS estimates are hard to get very accurate on. BGP is really volatile intraday. Good for daytrading. Consolidating now.















Stock didn't want to take out and hold resistance. PE Multiple looked a little rich. Didn't look that rich on asset valuation. My bias long-term on the stock is it goes much lower because of the business and the consumer but this thing keeps making higher lows on this uptrend here. Retail sales are later this morning. Good watch.















LPSN forward earnings estimates have been boosted. This one is holding that new support well. Very nice uptrend. Has been getting upgraded because of low valuation vs peers.


















full disclosure: no positions

July 12, 2009

Stock Pursuit Ultra Links

Some good summary of some of the core principles of value investing. I left a couple comments on value investing in the comments section. Using fundamentals on the future and sometimes even the past will get you into trouble a lot. Most of the time I feel you are either a total contrarian or dead.


Simmons below wants to change some things. Yes, Glass Steagall! I read my college history paper thoughts on the present at the bottom here a couple times since the panic...I really was on to this crisis there...and my China call. Maybe if I remind myself and type this enough I'll figure out what held me back from selling my shirt to leverage up on shorts last year.

If you Google " 1907 Crash " that paper is 2nd out of over 1 million just to Wikipedia. It ranks for some other keywords to. When the crisis was raging at its height last year I got dozens of hits a day for those keywords as people were freaking out I guess. Funny as the stock market bounced a little the searches went to almost none a month. These past few days I've gotten 2 or so views a day and there was an increase before the sell-off. Could be insignificant and spurious correlation but interesting.
Ideas for fixing the $11 TRILLION of debt the US owes


Half the volume on the exchanges now is program trading and Goldman's system might have gotten out. I heard Goldman is notorious for manipulating Level II with disguising size.


Paul van Eeden is right again


Mohnish Pabrai lecture at Columbia U

July 9, 2009

Family Dollar FDO

Family Dollar FDO looks like growth at a reasonable price and is still a recession resistant company. Institutions really loaded up yesterday with some nice blocks. That volume was higher than it has been for 5 months.

Forward EPS is looking like atleast $2.20 so there is a 14 PE multiple. EPS growth will probably be low double digits. I think it could easily make it to 34 a share. Not sure how much follow through there will be if the market takes a major dive here. I'd bet on 34 atleast though. I like this stock here. click below or post title to continue

I like the steady uptrend that always reacts to the trend lines I drew. The circles I made are gap up days. Very consistently after a strong gap up day like we had yesterday and big volume spike the stock has kept getting picked up. Guess what this gap up and volume spike on trend line support yesterday tells me the stock is going to do? Take that with the fundamentals and this is a good entry.

















full disclosure: no position

July 8, 2009

Oil Double Short DTO ETF

Oil is dead right now technically. I put my DTO oil double short ETF entry up on Twitter the other day. I put it on at 89.50. I noticed there was a messy double top and that oil was a leading indicator of the stock market on the way up. I'm real bearish here on stocks because nothing seems to have really changed enough. On the chart I also noticed oil made a big breakdown on a gap day that I drew the arrow to around 35 which is a powerful signal. I entered the trade on that breakdown gap. There was actually a gap down the day before to which was key as well.















I drew some key support lines. It looks like it is already starting to take out the next support at 33. I'd imagine there will be a little bounce here soon. I'll probably tighten my stop loss here tomorrow or just take my profit.




full disclosure: long DTO

July 6, 2009

Net Cash Stock MATH Special Situation

Thanks to a reader who left a comment on MathStar MATH in the last post. They look poised to liquidate for $1.25-1.40 a share. Tiberius Capital just upped the offer to $1.25 a share this morning. It's 7:58 am EST right now. Stock closed at $1.18 Friday. I just found a couple more net cash potentials one seemed to be in the liquidation process. I'll post them up later.


full disclosure: no position at time of writing

May 17, 2009

Great Investor Quotes from John Maynard Keynes, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Jason Zweig

There is this saying, "A foolish man learns from his mistakes. A wise man learns from other peoples mistakes." Many great investors and intellectual minds have given some great advice. Why not learn from them?

"To carry ones eggs in a great number of baskets without having time or opportunity to discover how many have holes in the bottom is the surest way of increasing risk and loss."

-John Maynard Keynes

Focus investing before Buffett. What you can get from this quote is that over-diversifying or even diversifying without having the "opportunity" to do the right analysis is foolish and will hurt returns.


Warren Buffett
Buffett was a student of Benjamin Graham and Graham had a big influence on him as an investor. He always kept Graham's teachings but Phil Fisher and Charlie Munger had a big influence on him later.


Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.

-Warren Buffett

Paying attention to contemporary theories like beta, volatility, risk of loss are barriers to the investor that knows what they are doing and has a sound thesis for buying a stock. Are so called growth stocks riskier than so called value stocks? What does risk mean? The market is not efficient, just do your damn homework! When Buffett bought The Washington Post you could have sold it to many investors for more than the market price but beta said it was risky. Is buying a $1 for $.60 risky just because the price fluctuates? No!


"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult. The academic world, if anything, has actually backed away from the teaching of value investing over the last 30 years. It's likely to continue that way. Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace, and those who read their Graham & Dodd will continue to prosper."

-Warren E. Buffett from speech at Columbia Business School 1984

This is from an essay by Warren Buffett in response to disproving the efficient market theory. He showed the market beating results of all the students of Ben Graham and proved that it is no coincidence. I really recommend that speech "The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville." Excerpts are all over the Internet. "The Intelligent Investor" I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

-Warren Buffett

Armed with a contrarian view an investor who finds real value in stocks others are scared to own will do well. Fear and greed cloud investing judgement and will always be around to be taken advantage of.


The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything--you can wait for your pitch.

I think this is a great quote not only for professional investors but for the individual investor. The individual investor can sit on a bunch of cash or not invest much in an over-valued market. They aren't always invested like fund managers who have to be as well as diversified. If a small investor sees an opportunity they can put as much as they please into a stock. I think this also applies to buying great companies at great prices, what Buffett loves to do. Sure you can get a good price every year or so in some great companies but it may take some big bad news or a slip-up by the company to get that great long-term price.

"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is usually the reputation of the business that remains intact."

The competitive landscape and how businesses live doesn't have mercy on great managers. Don't put to much faith in management to help a poor company. To much else is involved. This is a little off the topic of the quote but management can be underestimated and can do powerful things to companies. Just look at Apple Computer and how it has changed over the last 6 year.

"At some point in its life, almost every stock is a bargain; at another time, it will be expensive. Although there are good and bad companies, there is no such thing as a good stock; there are only good stock prices, which come and go. "

-Jason Zweig

Exploiting the inefficient market works. One can't get to attached to the stock price. It is just a price. The value is what one should concentrate on and understand how the market gets greedy and gives a bad price and how it gets fearful and gives a good price.

Benjamin Graham
"Confronted with the challenge to distill the secret of sound investment into three words, we venture the motto: Margin of Safety."

-Benjamin Graham

Calculating intrinsic value of a stock and company is not precise so if you can allow for some discrepancy you will do fine. It also means that even if you are right a margin of safety will increase ones returns and is a sound strategy. It definitely applied to his net quick liquidation stock portfolio he held but to other investments as well. Would you rather pay $10,000 for a $10,000 car or $6,600?

"The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage. That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish caused him by other persons' mistakes of judgment."
-Ben Graham

"In the short term the market is a voting machine, in the long-term it is a weighing machine."

-Ben Graham

The market is not efficient, eventually the true value of a company will be reflected by the stock price. I have actually struggled with this idea that the business fundamentals have to be reflected by the stock price over a year or so. I think this quote applies to the lifetime of a stock and company but stocks are a reflection of the future discounted to the present. Yes, eventually the stock price will catch up to value with a buyout or say a huge panic induced fall or a bankrupt companies shares trading for 0 but years can pass until then. This quote also reinforces the psychology behind stock prices and that fear can be exploited if you look into it.

Peter Lynch


"Stockpicking is both an art and a science, but too much of either is a dangerous thing. A person infatuated with measurement, who has his head stuck in the sands of the balance sheets, is not likely to succeed. If you could tell the future from a balance sheet, then mathematicians and accountants would be the richest people in the world by now."

-Peter Lynch

You have to understand the dynamic environment of business and economics and understand how to invest and at the right prices. You have to take everything into account but not every ratio, analysis, possible short-coming is the end all. Experience and knowing WHAT math to put the most emphasis on is the most important part of investing in stocks.


"Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike"

-Ben Graham

I have only read a newer version which is really good of The Intelligent Investor Security Analysis,The Intelligent Investor: The Classic Text on Value Investing and Peter Lynch's first book One Up On Wall Street : How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market. I only read Beating the Street.

This is a good book with Buffett quotes, Warren Buffett Speaks: Wit and Wisdom from the World's Greatest Investor.

May 6, 2009

What's Really Up With Oil? Simple Economics? Paul Van Eeden

Paul Van Eeden about monetary policy of the FED





February 3, 2009

Gold Penny Stocks List

I think depending on how good one is at forecasting gold prices in the future a lot of these in this gold penny stock list could be long-term holds. However, I think the recent run-up in gold stocks could allow them to fall just as fast as they rose. I only like this gold stocks list for possibly finding short-term trades. I like to use a tight stop loss and quick profit taking because buying penny stocks can be risky.

Gold Stocks List
Augusta Resource Corp. AZC $80 mil market cap has been a little left behind in the gold and metal frenzy until these past few days.













Golden Star Resources GSS $427 mil gold penny stock













Great Basin Gold GBG $402 mil Nice hammer. Buyers look like they want a lot more.













US Gold UXG volume could be a little overdone soon














Vista Gold Corp. VGZ Interesting hammer. Volume doesn't look overdone.














So I think these may turn out to be cheap penny stocks if gold is up and they can be a speculative trade with good risk management. I really love penny stocks and penny stock picks. Are penny stocks a good investment? In most cases in my opinion no. Profits should always be taken or losses cut in my opinion.

If you're asking yourself,how do I buy a gold etf? or how do I buy gold as an investment? you will need a stock broker. These accounts are easy to set up by oneself. This is my favorite broker to buy penny stocks online and the one that I use right now because of the low flat commission.



Related

New analysis in this Gold Video

Some Gold Market key levels to watch for

A gold stocks list to consider.


full disclosure: no positions