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August 10, 2009

My 2009 Net-Net Stocks Performance & Going Forward

I went back through the blog starting with the first day of 2009 and crunched some numbers on my net current asset stocks pick performance. This assumes one bought them the next day after finding them on the blog this year. If it was on the blog in 2009 and less than net current assets I used it. Looking through the 2009 list there are some that I posted on earlier than 2009 like HHGP which is a -20% loser since the initial post pre 2009,TUES +58% gainer and HKN -35% since its December post when it was less than tangible assets however. I think PARL was on the blog in 2007 or 2008 to but I didn't go back that far and a search didn't turn it up. It would be a looser from then. The rest were fresh for 2009.

This might sound a little weird but I think I've said this before. I really had no idea what I was doing with net-nets before around mid-2008. In 2007 when I started following them and most of 2008 I was just feeling them out. From mid 2008 on there are a lot of winners to though of course.

These returns below were calculated with the potential buy-in starting the day after it was on the blog in 2009 because I didn't always post during market hours. These returns assume one bought that next day and sold at the stocks high afterward. The likeliness of selling at the high is not highly likely but had one decided to protect the potential profits and sell on the way up it would have been very possible to have come out with a good chunk of the bulk of those profits. About all of these I calculated about 3 weeks ago so some of them are probably up a lot more since then. SMRT hit 10.50 for example. The ones with technicals next to them were ones that technical analysis had a major role in.

25 winners
4 losers

Winners
PIR 1,600% technicals

SMRT 670%

SWIR 285%

TUES 236%

PXG 293% technicals

MSON 178% technicals

VVTV 194%

HHGP 156%

CACH 150%

AERG 100% in 1 day technicals

ANAD 96% technicals

GSIG 77% technicals

NLS 58% technicals

MLR 48%

CALL 45%

PARL 42%

HURC 40%

FSII 40% technicals

LDIS 28% technicals

JOB 26%

AEY 17%

SPAR 20% technicals

IFON 19% technicals

HKN 18%

IVA good run .50 to .70 but I think was to illiquid

NSTR .05%

Losers
CDCO -5%

ADGF -19%

RFIL -25%

QLTI -53%

SKX -46% stock crashed after post. Maybe a little to hard on this one because if doubled down off March lows it went to 14 as of now.


I'm going to start tracking the performance of my net current asset stock aka net-net picks better from here out. For it to be a pick I'll do a post on it and say it is a buy at such and such price. I'll also add it to this portfolio here. I'm pretty sure this can be viewed by anyone. I may also add none net-nets from time to time. I'm not liking Tickerspy so far because I haven't figured out how to even sell a position with it. I started a Marketocracy portfolio to which I think I like better but the $1 mil it gives me to manage is a bit much to just show how I can trade these net's.

If you've been paying attention to my net-net posts, for months now I have only been putting a net-net up if it is worthy of an actual buy very soon me. Since 2007 I have put up a lot of net-net's as potentials with my thesis on them but didn't always pound the table on them as a buy that day. I'd usually run through the good I saw and the bad. I was good then but I am even better now.

From here out my skill with stock picking will be a little more on display be it turn out good or bad. Some time in the future I may switch it over to Covestor.com. Covestor actually taps into your broker so with them there is the most complete transparency possible. For now though I feel like posting on them around the same day I trade them will do. I put up FSII ahead of time because that set-up was so good I wanted put out a heads up. I think the bulk of you that read my blog are here for net-net's and value plays. It's not always easy for me to post up an entry for a net-net trade in real-time on the same day so I might just do these watches. I don't keep as close an eye on net-net's and deep value day to day as I do my other watchlists. I trade a lot of different strategies.

I brought up earlier that I want to start charging a yearly or monthly subscription for my net-net picks. If I go that route it will still be months off. You will also have the opportunity to track my progress better before deciding if $5-$8 a month is worth it. As you can see since 2008 it has been going well and I've actually even stepped up my proficiency lately.

I've only been following net-net's since 2007 and have made really big progress since just 2008 in them. I have kind of gotten in a groove on which ones to drill down on with the fundamental analysis and focus on. Incorporating technical analysis as a tool in my various strategies has also been very significant. I am a very different investor and trader with net-net's and approach them differently than most investors who work in them. I believe that has really helped me identify some of the best performers better.

full disclosure: no positions

My 2009 Net-Net Stocks Performance & Going Forward

I went back through the blog starting with the first day of 2009 and crunched some numbers on my net current asset stocks pick performance. This assumes one bought them the next day after finding them on the blog this year. If it was on the blog in 2009 and less than net current assets I used it. Looking through the 2009 list there are some that I posted on earlier than 2009 like HHGP which is a -20% loser since the initial post pre 2009,TUES +58% gainer and HKN -35% since its December post when it was less than tangible assets however. I think PARL was on the blog in 2007 or 2008 to but I didn't go back that far and a search didn't turn it up. It would be a looser from then. The rest were fresh for 2009.

This might sound a little weird but I think I've said this before. I really had no idea what I was doing with net-nets before around mid-2008. In 2007 when I started following them and most of 2008 I was just feeling them out. From mid 2008 on there are a lot of winners to though of course.

These returns below were calculated with the potential buy-in starting the day after it was on the blog in 2009 because I didn't always post during market hours. These returns assume one bought that next day and sold at the stocks high afterward. The likeliness of selling at the high is not highly likely but had one decided to protect the potential profits and sell on the way up it would have been very possible to have come out with a good chunk of the bulk of those profits. About all of these I calculated about 3 weeks ago so some of them are probably up a lot more since then. SMRT hit 10.50 for example. The ones with technicals next to them were ones that technical analysis had a major role in.

25 winners
4 losers

Winners
PIR 1,600% technicals

SMRT 670%

SWIR 285%

TUES 236%

PXG 293% technicals

MSON 178% technicals

VVTV 194%

HHGP 156%

CACH 150%

AERG 100% in 1 day technicals

ANAD 96% technicals

GSIG 77% technicals

NLS 58% technicals

MLR 48%

CALL 45%

PARL 42%

HURC 40%

FSII 40% technicals

LDIS 28% technicals

JOB 26%

AEY 17%

SPAR 20% technicals

IFON 19% technicals

HKN 18%

IVA good run .50 to .70 but I think was to illiquid

NSTR .05%

Losers
CDCO -5%

ADGF -19%

RFIL -25%

QLTI -53%

SKX -46% stock crashed after post. Maybe a little to hard on this one because if doubled down off March lows it went to 14 as of now.


I'm going to start tracking the performance of my net current asset stock aka net-net picks better from here out. For it to be a pick I'll do a post on it and say it is a buy at such and such price. I'll also add it to this portfolio here. I'm pretty sure this can be viewed by anyone. I may also add none net-nets from time to time. I'm not liking Tickerspy so far because I haven't figured out how to even sell a position with it. I started a Marketocracy portfolio to which I think I like better but the $1 mil it gives me to manage is a bit much to just show how I can trade these net's.

If you've been paying attention to my net-net posts, for months now I have only been putting a net-net up if it is worthy of an actual buy very soon me. Since 2007 I have put up a lot of net-net's as potentials with my thesis on them but didn't always pound the table on them as a buy that day. I'd usually run through the good I saw and the bad. I was good then but I am even better now.

From here out my skill with stock picking will be a little more on display be it turn out good or bad. Some time in the future I may switch it over to Covestor.com. Covestor actually taps into your broker so with them there is the most complete transparency possible. For now though I feel like posting on them around the same day I trade them will do. I put up FSII ahead of time because that set-up was so good I wanted put out a heads up. I think the bulk of you that read my blog are here for net-net's and value plays. It's not always easy for me to post up an entry for a net-net trade in real-time on the same day so I might just do these watches. I don't keep as close an eye on net-net's and deep value day to day as I do my other watchlists. I trade a lot of different strategies.

I brought up earlier that I want to start charging a yearly or monthly subscription for my net-net picks. If I go that route it will still be months off. You will also have the opportunity to track my progress better before deciding if $5-$8 a month is worth it. As you can see since 2008 it has been going well and I've actually even stepped up my proficiency lately.

I've only been following net-net's since 2007 and have made really big progress since just 2008 in them. I have kind of gotten in a groove on which ones to drill down on with the fundamental analysis and focus on. Incorporating technical analysis as a tool in my various strategies has also been very significant. I am a very different investor and trader with net-net's and approach them differently than most investors who work in them. I believe that has really helped me identify some of the best performers better.

full disclosure: no positions

August 8, 2009

Respect The Trend Line














Counter to anticipated breakdown. Hammer followed by hammer on higher volume. continued...




























Counter to anticipated breakdown. Bullish signal.















































full disclosure:no positions

July 30, 2009

Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil has really been trading well on technicals lately. It's actually been trading on technicals to the T. So easy to read the important spots. Here is an older technical trade set-up on oil that turned into a good trade for me.

I was actually going to post this a day ago the night before the beating it took yesterday. Sorry about that. Anyway, I actually missed the trade because I wasn't watching oil.

The first circle on the left is a somewhat weak shooting star candle. Just means sellers were particularly strong by the end of the day. Buyers were not in control. The significance was it was at the peak of price resistance. Next circle. Big doji right at resistance. Very bearish. The doji means there was a battle between buyers and sellers and it reflects major indecision in the marketplace. When a doji occurs at the extreme end of a trend it often indicates a reversal in trend. I noticed going back a lot of months a doji was a good signal of an earlier trend change to. Both of these clues taken together leads the chart to read more downside. It definitely happened after that doji. Yesterday was a huge drop. That day isn't on this chart but USL closed at 35.50. I think oil finished at 62 a barrel.

Also, if you are going to go long on oil for a longer term trade from what I understand USL tracks better than USO because of the way they rollover the contracts.















disclosure: no position USL

July 24, 2009

Dow Jones Index Technical Analysis

I pulled out a longer term chart of the Dow and there is what looks like a potential rounding bottom formation and failed signal on this last breakdown. Both of these are bullish. The fundamentals are hard for me to get a hold of here on a lot of stocks and the economy. I'd say stock prices are more likely to be overvalued fundamentally. I also strongly believe we will be in a range-bound market for many years. I'd be very surprised if we saw new highs on the indices anytime this year or next year. I'd actually be scared because I fear what the next crisis will be like. I think the economy and stocks should have cooled off and consolidated with the savings and loan crisis at the least.

All of that totally conflicts with the current market forces that are driving stock prices higher. I don't think market forces are always intelligent but using technicals can give me a better read on the short and mid-term direction. I don't have much experience with the indices technically so I'm treading pretty lightly here. One type of bottom formation is a rounding bottom. It looks very similar to the long term chart on the S&P and Dow. Confirmation would be about 10,000 on the Dow.






























I like this next one the most right here. We were stuck in that range from May until just recently when it looked like the market was going to breakdown. The arrow points to that move. We actually did make a new low there below the chop. Then those sellers and skeptics got wiped out as the market forced them higher and prevented a breakdown. That was the failed signal. What that means is the strength here is very strong. If it can't go lower we can only go higher technically. This is beginning to be confirmed as new highs are being made out of this range signaling more upside potential. If we hold these highs or retest and run there could be much more upside in this rally. Really though, a no brainer time to go bullish and get long was when the failed breakout pushed above the trend support line. I didn't even think about the failed signal because I was expecting more lows and didn't flip the picture around which this chart says to do.