October 28, 2009

U.S. Stock Market Analysis

This runs uptrend is still intact but we are getting very close to possibly seeing some potentially dangerous conditions play out. The bull trap I pointed out on financials is not very reassuring when you take what could happen here in the next couple days.

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I just noticed some hammers at the bottoms of the last pull-backs. Bulls will want to see some big hammers soon.

There should be a bounce or atleast an attempt to pick up some stocks at this level I circled on the Naz. If not look out! If the Nasdaq closes for a couple days below this support line the rally from the March lows is over. The momentum will be over. How much more downside could play out? I don't know. We could test the March lows or just go sideways. I'd be more inclined towards sideways or slightly down but all this is getting ahead of the next couple days. These next few days are very important. There could still be a new high soon if the support is broken but that doesn't seem very likely to me with the current economic and fundamental indicators today.

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Uptrend still intact. Bigger selling pressure today. The bounce could be huge or the attempt could just get slaughtered. I expect some sort of bounce tomorrow.


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full disclosure:no position in Nasdaq or S&P 500 ETF's or futures contracts or XLF

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