October 19, 2009

Time To Buy Crude Oil?

I was watching crude oil over the last couple weeks but this last week I got distracted with some other stocks like my QDEL buy and I missed the easy oil trade. I wasn't watching for a breakout. Let's go back a second. Well, a week or two ago I saw the same exact pattern forming in oil. Fundamentally oil and gold rise because of inflation.

On this chart below I was expecting heavy volume to come on the first move before a breakout. It wasn't there. Usually when a triangle pops it is on volume like gold was. There were two hammers back to back leading right up to the breakout though that I missed. There actually is a triangle that this move has come off of just not the long one I was expecting.

Time To Buy Oil ETFs?
For the very long-term it's a good idea especially on major dips. But holding oil contracts outright vs ETFs is better. For holding for months at a time the etf USL should track oil better vs USO because of the contracts. USO has underperformed oil because it holds short-term contracts. USL holds 12 month futures contracts.

I doubt there is that much short-term upside left on this move but I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more days before some consolidation. I'm not sure I will put a position on on another breakout because I play oil with ETFs like the double long DXO and I want to see a lot of clear upside that I can swing trade. Maybe I'll take a stab if bigger volume comes here this week.

full disclosure:no position in DXO or any oil