full disclosure:no positions
September 30, 2009
Bank and Financial Stocks
I've had an eye out for anything financial lately. Especially looking for the beginning of a new run. CSGH isn't a financial I don't think but it has a great chart going for it right now. Might just run again tomorrow. Great volume spike.If anyone else has some nicely uptrending financials or ones that just had unusual volume anytime in the future post them up with the ticker in a comment anytime. Unusual volume spikes are great scans. I recently caught BRNC with one at a 5 handle and it ran to $7.
full disclosure:no positions
full disclosure:no positions
Swine Flu Stock Alpha Pro Tech APT
CNBC did atleast one long segment on APT this morning as part of a swine flu segment. Here is the CNBC article on them to. This $130 million market cap company had heavy volume today on a gap up. I'm going to watch for a possible double top. It looks like the chart sets up for a short if it fills this gap. The chart is unclear to me until it retests that high. It very well could continue breaking out though because of this gap and volume. Though the past two times is has a gaped up it has pulled back immediately this year.
full disclosure:no position
full disclosure:no position
September 28, 2009
Stock ADPT
I put CHCI up as a watch the other day and this thing ran huge today and topped out at $.98. I didn't trade today but I hope some of you maybe saw these like VG to that I put on Twitter that ran today. LPTH was my top watch today and it ran 16% today off a easy set-up. The breakout was at $2.30 and it ran to $2.74. Net-Net MSN is holding up better than I expected. To many possible swing trades out there.
ADPT is testing around this new possible support around $3.00. It is congesting well so far which makes it seem that it might continue running. If I'm going to play it tomorrow is the day to go long. I think a good stop loss is right below $2.85. If you look on the 11th,12th and 18th $2.85 was the low of those days and important support. The likelyhood of it getting more downside when it cracks this is pretty good. So $2.83-84 is a good stop point with a profit target of $3.50-.60.
full disclosure: no position
ADPT is testing around this new possible support around $3.00. It is congesting well so far which makes it seem that it might continue running. If I'm going to play it tomorrow is the day to go long. I think a good stop loss is right below $2.85. If you look on the 11th,12th and 18th $2.85 was the low of those days and important support. The likelyhood of it getting more downside when it cracks this is pretty good. So $2.83-84 is a good stop point with a profit target of $3.50-.60.
full disclosure: no position
Ben Graham Net-Net EFJI
EF Johnson Technologies EFJIMost of their business is from wireless radios. They sell wireless communications equipment with a large base of their customers being the government.
Major Customers
The U.S. Department of Defense was approximately 15%, 62% and 16% of consolidated revenues in 2008, 2007 and 2006. DRS Technologies, Sprint/Nextel, and the State of California are significant customers, representing 13%, 12% and 12%, respectively, of consolidated revenues in 2008.
Valuation
At $1.24 a share market cap is $32.74 mil and net current asset value is $39.41 mil. Net current asset valuation is a quick rough liquidation value. However, in this particular case almost 50% of NCAV (net current asset value) is comprised of inventory sitting in storage. In the event of an actual hypothetical liquidation it would very likely yield much less than the amount on the companies books.
2009 earnings per share have been boosted it appears to $.06 and a sole analyst expects $.10 for 2010. At 1.24 a share this is only about 12 times earnings and they could continue to grow over 50%. This asset valuation and trailing 2009 PE multiple of 20 seem nuts to me. Nuts meaning it might still be undervalued.
On the 15th of September volume soared and the stock flew on the back of a press release for their new Hybrid IP25 first responder radio system and 2 new military contracts for the radios on the 15th. I would have loved this stock at $1.00 because of the larger asset valuation cushion and also because of the price action. I believe the stock could have a pull-back soon which I explain in the following charts and I am going to wait a day or two to see what develops.
In the above chart we can see that there could be strong support right around $1.00.
The green line on ADX contracting worries me a little right now
It's running on heavy momo(momentum) right now being that it is hugging the upper band. Some people could take some profits soon.
The arrow on the right shows how buying volume is trending downward day to day which worries me that buyers might be getting exhausted in this round up for now atleast. Plus the doji candle two days ago and a shooting star candle Friday. The momo could very well continue for awhile but I feel more comfortable waiting just a day or two for either a pull-back or some other sign buyers are committed right now.
full disclosure: no position at time of writing
Major Customers
The U.S. Department of Defense was approximately 15%, 62% and 16% of consolidated revenues in 2008, 2007 and 2006. DRS Technologies, Sprint/Nextel, and the State of California are significant customers, representing 13%, 12% and 12%, respectively, of consolidated revenues in 2008.
Valuation
At $1.24 a share market cap is $32.74 mil and net current asset value is $39.41 mil. Net current asset valuation is a quick rough liquidation value. However, in this particular case almost 50% of NCAV (net current asset value) is comprised of inventory sitting in storage. In the event of an actual hypothetical liquidation it would very likely yield much less than the amount on the companies books.
2009 earnings per share have been boosted it appears to $.06 and a sole analyst expects $.10 for 2010. At 1.24 a share this is only about 12 times earnings and they could continue to grow over 50%. This asset valuation and trailing 2009 PE multiple of 20 seem nuts to me. Nuts meaning it might still be undervalued.
On the 15th of September volume soared and the stock flew on the back of a press release for their new Hybrid IP25 first responder radio system and 2 new military contracts for the radios on the 15th. I would have loved this stock at $1.00 because of the larger asset valuation cushion and also because of the price action. I believe the stock could have a pull-back soon which I explain in the following charts and I am going to wait a day or two to see what develops.
In the above chart we can see that there could be strong support right around $1.00.
The green line on ADX contracting worries me a little right now
It's running on heavy momo(momentum) right now being that it is hugging the upper band. Some people could take some profits soon.
The arrow on the right shows how buying volume is trending downward day to day which worries me that buyers might be getting exhausted in this round up for now atleast. Plus the doji candle two days ago and a shooting star candle Friday. The momo could very well continue for awhile but I feel more comfortable waiting just a day or two for either a pull-back or some other sign buyers are committed right now.
full disclosure: no position at time of writing
Strong KEME
I haven't traded any of those ETF's like I was thinking about like SRS or a short on the Nasdaq. This market continues to be incredible as far as the confidence in equities even with higher valuations. I'm not going to short any indices soon. I put this momentum penny stock KEME at the top of my watchlist the other day and ended up longing it at an average basis of $1.48 a share. It failed to breakout then has just seemingly re-tested and printed a hammer today. I'm looking for a breakout to sell into and add to my 7% profit so far. If it gets hung up again on the breakout and doesn't look strong I'll probably take the gain or cut it break-even to slightly down. This hammer looks really good to me though.
full disclosure:long
full disclosure:long
September 26, 2009
Net-Net LDIS Is Liquidating
I just wanted to do an update on LDIS. In this press release they say they want to get a liquidation from between $.93 to 1.20 per share. This is right on the back of a Nasdaq deficiency notice for a low share price and it requires that the share price must now trade at $1.00 in the next 180 days or it could be delisted. I first noticed LDIS when it was at $.73 back in July. I can't seem to find a net-net I like that doesn't do well lately. Even net cash stock ACTS from awhile back has performed well. As of right now I'm not going to buy LDIS.
I sold INHX at $1.21 today from a $1.20 buy because I got a bad feeling about this action the past several days. They got some media? coverage I guess on a Seeking alpha article and a $2 target by Zacks. The thing I didn't like about that was it did boost the price into that breakout I was looking for but it looked like a bull trap and nasty shooting star to me plus I've got some back to back winners and taking a commission scratch on this one will probably be some good risk management that I need. It is still looking strong but I'd just rather buy the next big break if it comes.
full disclosure: no positions
I sold INHX at $1.21 today from a $1.20 buy because I got a bad feeling about this action the past several days. They got some media? coverage I guess on a Seeking alpha article and a $2 target by Zacks. The thing I didn't like about that was it did boost the price into that breakout I was looking for but it looked like a bull trap and nasty shooting star to me plus I've got some back to back winners and taking a commission scratch on this one will probably be some good risk management that I need. It is still looking strong but I'd just rather buy the next big break if it comes.
full disclosure: no positions
September 24, 2009
Real Estate Index In Trouble
Existing home sales fell very unexpectedly it seems.
I'm a day late in catching this perfect set-up but I think there will be some continuation. Maybe a lot of continuation. When I first saw the candle the arrow points to I thought it was a pure shooting star but it is more of a doji which is just as ugly being at the top of this chart. These two spike days back to back look very bearish plus that half shooting star/doji, plus the fundamentals.
I'm hoping for a pull-back so I can get long UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS). If it gaps down I might go long to. The risk of taking this trade for more than a day or two is there is good support at 11.00 to 11.20 in SRS(the line) and it will probably bounce around before another big move.
full disclosure: no position in SRS, IYR
I'm a day late in catching this perfect set-up but I think there will be some continuation. Maybe a lot of continuation. When I first saw the candle the arrow points to I thought it was a pure shooting star but it is more of a doji which is just as ugly being at the top of this chart. These two spike days back to back look very bearish plus that half shooting star/doji, plus the fundamentals.
I'm hoping for a pull-back so I can get long UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS). If it gaps down I might go long to. The risk of taking this trade for more than a day or two is there is good support at 11.00 to 11.20 in SRS(the line) and it will probably bounce around before another big move.
full disclosure: no position in SRS, IYR
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)