September 24, 2009

Real Estate Index In Trouble

Existing home sales fell very unexpectedly it seems.

I'm a day late in catching this perfect set-up but I think there will be some continuation. Maybe a lot of continuation. When I first saw the candle the arrow points to I thought it was a pure shooting star but it is more of a doji which is just as ugly being at the top of this chart. These two spike days back to back look very bearish plus that half shooting star/doji, plus the fundamentals.

I'm hoping for a pull-back so I can get long UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS). If it gaps down I might go long to. The risk of taking this trade for more than a day or two is there is good support at 11.00 to 11.20 in SRS(the line) and it will probably bounce around before another big move.

full disclosure: no position in SRS, IYR