My 2009 Net-Net Stocks Performance & Going Forward

I went back through the blog starting with the first day of 2009 and crunched some numbers on my net current asset stocks pick performance. This assumes one bought them the next day after finding them on the blog this year. If it was on the blog in 2009 and less than net current assets I used it. Looking through the 2009 list there are some that I posted on earlier than 2009 like HHGP which is a -20% loser since the initial post pre 2009,TUES +58% gainer and HKN -35% since its December post when it was less than tangible assets however. I think PARL was on the blog in 2007 or 2008 to but I didn't go back that far and a search didn't turn it up. It would be a looser from then. The rest were fresh for 2009.

This might sound a little weird but I think I've said this before. I really had no idea what I was doing with net-nets before around mid-2008. In 2007 when I started following them and most of 2008 I was just feeling them out. From mid 2008 on there are a lot of winners to though of course.

These returns below were calculated with the potential buy-in starting the day after it was on the blog in 2009 because I didn't always post during market hours. These returns assume one bought that next day and sold at the stocks high afterward. The likeliness of selling at the high is not highly likely but had one decided to protect the potential profits and sell on the way up it would have been very possible to have come out with a good chunk of the bulk of those profits. About all of these I calculated about 3 weeks ago so some of them are probably up a lot more since then. SMRT hit 10.50 for example. The ones with technicals next to them were ones that technical analysis had a major role in.

25 winners
4 losers

Winners
PIR 1,600% technicals

SMRT 670%

SWIR 285%

TUES 236%

PXG 293% technicals

MSON 178% technicals

VVTV 194%

HHGP 156%

CACH 150%

AERG 100% in 1 day technicals

ANAD 96% technicals

GSIG 77% technicals

NLS 58% technicals

MLR 48%

CALL 45%

PARL 42%

HURC 40%

FSII 40% technicals

LDIS 28% technicals

JOB 26%

AEY 17%

SPAR 20% technicals

IFON 19% technicals

HKN 18%

IVA good run .50 to .70 but I think was to illiquid

NSTR .05%

Losers
CDCO -5%

ADGF -19%

RFIL -25%

QLTI -53%

SKX -46% stock crashed after post. Maybe a little to hard on this one because if doubled down off March lows it went to 14 as of now.


I'm going to start tracking the performance of my net current asset stock aka net-net picks better from here out. For it to be a pick I'll do a post on it and say it is a buy at such and such price. I'll also add it to this portfolio here. I'm pretty sure this can be viewed by anyone. I may also add none net-nets from time to time. I'm not liking Tickerspy so far because I haven't figured out how to even sell a position with it. I started a Marketocracy portfolio to which I think I like better but the $1 mil it gives me to manage is a bit much to just show how I can trade these net's.

If you've been paying attention to my net-net posts, for months now I have only been putting a net-net up if it is worthy of an actual buy very soon me. Since 2007 I have put up a lot of net-net's as potentials with my thesis on them but didn't always pound the table on them as a buy that day. I'd usually run through the good I saw and the bad. I was good then but I am even better now.

From here out my skill with stock picking will be a little more on display be it turn out good or bad. Some time in the future I may switch it over to Covestor.com. Covestor actually taps into your broker so with them there is the most complete transparency possible. For now though I feel like posting on them around the same day I trade them will do. I put up FSII ahead of time because that set-up was so good I wanted put out a heads up. I think the bulk of you that read my blog are here for net-net's and value plays. It's not always easy for me to post up an entry for a net-net trade in real-time on the same day so I might just do these watches. I don't keep as close an eye on net-net's and deep value day to day as I do my other watchlists. I trade a lot of different strategies.

I brought up earlier that I want to start charging a yearly or monthly subscription for my net-net picks. If I go that route it will still be months off. You will also have the opportunity to track my progress better before deciding if $5-$8 a month is worth it. As you can see since 2008 it has been going well and I've actually even stepped up my proficiency lately.

I've only been following net-net's since 2007 and have made really big progress since just 2008 in them. I have kind of gotten in a groove on which ones to drill down on with the fundamental analysis and focus on. Incorporating technical analysis as a tool in my various strategies has also been very significant. I am a very different investor and trader with net-net's and approach them differently than most investors who work in them. I believe that has really helped me identify some of the best performers better.

full disclosure: no positions

My 2009 Net-Net Stocks Performance & Going Forward

I went back through the blog starting with the first day of 2009 and crunched some numbers on my net current asset stocks pick performance. This assumes one bought them the next day after finding them on the blog this year. If it was on the blog in 2009 and less than net current assets I used it. Looking through the 2009 list there are some that I posted on earlier than 2009 like HHGP which is a -20% loser since the initial post pre 2009,TUES +58% gainer and HKN -35% since its December post when it was less than tangible assets however. I think PARL was on the blog in 2007 or 2008 to but I didn't go back that far and a search didn't turn it up. It would be a looser from then. The rest were fresh for 2009.

This might sound a little weird but I think I've said this before. I really had no idea what I was doing with net-nets before around mid-2008. In 2007 when I started following them and most of 2008 I was just feeling them out. From mid 2008 on there are a lot of winners to though of course.

These returns below were calculated with the potential buy-in starting the day after it was on the blog in 2009 because I didn't always post during market hours. These returns assume one bought that next day and sold at the stocks high afterward. The likeliness of selling at the high is not highly likely but had one decided to protect the potential profits and sell on the way up it would have been very possible to have come out with a good chunk of the bulk of those profits. About all of these I calculated about 3 weeks ago so some of them are probably up a lot more since then. SMRT hit 10.50 for example. The ones with technicals next to them were ones that technical analysis had a major role in.

25 winners
4 losers

Winners
PIR 1,600% technicals

SMRT 670%

SWIR 285%

TUES 236%

PXG 293% technicals

MSON 178% technicals

VVTV 194%

HHGP 156%

CACH 150%

AERG 100% in 1 day technicals

ANAD 96% technicals

GSIG 77% technicals

NLS 58% technicals

MLR 48%

CALL 45%

PARL 42%

HURC 40%

FSII 40% technicals

LDIS 28% technicals

JOB 26%

AEY 17%

SPAR 20% technicals

IFON 19% technicals

HKN 18%

IVA good run .50 to .70 but I think was to illiquid

NSTR .05%

Losers
CDCO -5%

ADGF -19%

RFIL -25%

QLTI -53%

SKX -46% stock crashed after post. Maybe a little to hard on this one because if doubled down off March lows it went to 14 as of now.


I'm going to start tracking the performance of my net current asset stock aka net-net picks better from here out. For it to be a pick I'll do a post on it and say it is a buy at such and such price. I'll also add it to this portfolio here. I'm pretty sure this can be viewed by anyone. I may also add none net-nets from time to time. I'm not liking Tickerspy so far because I haven't figured out how to even sell a position with it. I started a Marketocracy portfolio to which I think I like better but the $1 mil it gives me to manage is a bit much to just show how I can trade these net's.

If you've been paying attention to my net-net posts, for months now I have only been putting a net-net up if it is worthy of an actual buy very soon me. Since 2007 I have put up a lot of net-net's as potentials with my thesis on them but didn't always pound the table on them as a buy that day. I'd usually run through the good I saw and the bad. I was good then but I am even better now.

From here out my skill with stock picking will be a little more on display be it turn out good or bad. Some time in the future I may switch it over to Covestor.com. Covestor actually taps into your broker so with them there is the most complete transparency possible. For now though I feel like posting on them around the same day I trade them will do. I put up FSII ahead of time because that set-up was so good I wanted put out a heads up. I think the bulk of you that read my blog are here for net-net's and value plays. It's not always easy for me to post up an entry for a net-net trade in real-time on the same day so I might just do these watches. I don't keep as close an eye on net-net's and deep value day to day as I do my other watchlists. I trade a lot of different strategies.

I brought up earlier that I want to start charging a yearly or monthly subscription for my net-net picks. If I go that route it will still be months off. You will also have the opportunity to track my progress better before deciding if $5-$8 a month is worth it. As you can see since 2008 it has been going well and I've actually even stepped up my proficiency lately.

I've only been following net-net's since 2007 and have made really big progress since just 2008 in them. I have kind of gotten in a groove on which ones to drill down on with the fundamental analysis and focus on. Incorporating technical analysis as a tool in my various strategies has also been very significant. I am a very different investor and trader with net-net's and approach them differently than most investors who work in them. I believe that has really helped me identify some of the best performers better.

full disclosure: no positions

Respect The Trend Line

Counter to anticipated breakdown. Hammer followed by hammer on higher volume. continued...




























Counter to anticipated breakdown. Bullish signal.















































full disclosure:no positions

Oil Technical Analysis

Crude oil has really been trading well on technicals lately. It's actually been trading on technicals to the T. So easy to read the important spots. Here is an older technical trade set-up on oil that turned into a good trade for me.

I was actually going to post this a day ago the night before the beating it took yesterday. Sorry about that. Anyway, I actually missed the trade because I wasn't watching oil.

The first circle on the left is a somewhat weak shooting star candle. Just means sellers were particularly strong by the end of the day. Buyers were not in control. The significance was it was at the peak of price resistance. Next circle. Big doji right at resistance. Very bearish. The doji means there was a battle between buyers and sellers and it reflects major indecision in the marketplace. When a doji occurs at the extreme end of a trend it often indicates a reversal in trend. I noticed going back a lot of months a doji was a good signal of an earlier trend change to. Both of these clues taken together leads the chart to read more downside. It definitely happened after that doji. Yesterday was a huge drop. That day isn't on this chart but USL closed at 35.50. I think oil finished at 62 a barrel.

Also, if you are going to go long on oil for a longer term trade from what I understand USL tracks better than USO because of the way they rollover the contracts.















disclosure: no position USL

Dow Jones Index Technical Analysis

I pulled out a longer term chart of the Dow and there is what looks like a potential rounding bottom formation and failed signal on this last breakdown. Both of these are bullish. The fundamentals are hard for me to get a hold of here on a lot of stocks and the economy. I'd say stock prices are more likely to be overvalued fundamentally. I also strongly believe we will be in a range-bound market for many years. I'd be very surprised if we saw new highs on the indices anytime this year or next year. I'd actually be scared because I fear what the next crisis will be like. I think the economy and stocks should have cooled off and consolidated with the savings and loan crisis at the least.

All of that totally conflicts with the current market forces that are driving stock prices higher. I don't think market forces are always intelligent but using technicals can give me a better read on the short and mid-term direction. I don't have much experience with the indices technically so I'm treading pretty lightly here. One type of bottom formation is a rounding bottom. It looks very similar to the long term chart on the S&P and Dow. Confirmation would be about 10,000 on the Dow.






























I like this next one the most right here. We were stuck in that range from May until just recently when it looked like the market was going to breakdown. The arrow points to that move. We actually did make a new low there below the chop. Then those sellers and skeptics got wiped out as the market forced them higher and prevented a breakdown. That was the failed signal. What that means is the strength here is very strong. If it can't go lower we can only go higher technically. This is beginning to be confirmed as new highs are being made out of this range signaling more upside potential. If we hold these highs or retest and run there could be much more upside in this rally. Really though, a no brainer time to go bullish and get long was when the failed breakout pushed above the trend support line. I didn't even think about the failed signal because I was expecting more lows and didn't flip the picture around which this chart says to do.

Top Short Watches

Congratulations to anyone that saw my Twitter post that GAEC was going to tank. I put that alert up a couple days ago before the annihilation when the stock was at $2.20s. The stock crashed today to $1.10 and closed at $1.60.


These are some of my top short watches.














FRZ sells ice cubes. See a pattern here?














Newspaper company.














Another newspaper














Yet another






























full disclosure: no positions

Festival of Stocks at Modern Graham

Check out Modern Graham and the festival of stocks for some investing articles. My post I did on IFON and LDIS is there. I just took off my IFON for a gain of 20%. Post coming up on that and on my 2009 net-net performance.

Net-Net IFON Trade

I'm glad I learned technical analysis because it really helped me out with IFON. Actually, the way it is going right now it may have been the difference between a nice gain and tiny profit or loss. I used that red trend line(in my platform though) to see that the bull run was still alive after it had fallen back to $1 and slowly started creeping up around the same trend line. After I longed it at $1.58 all I did was watch it continue up the line. As it approached the $1.99 resistance from the other week(first red line) without breaking it strong intraday I saw the potential for a double top and pull-back. Not worth the risk of loosing the profits because of that possibility so far into this run it has had. I actually sold it yesterday at 1.92 before that last red day on the chart which is today's action. This exit looks about perfect right now because yesterday IFON only hit a high of 1.96. And right now it is looking like that was the end.

It very well could get a push over $2 but there is just something about those round numbers. Notice it never traded at $2. And I noticed that the buying has been coming every day and that had to end eventually. Drew that with a black circle. I was also thinking about the valuation. No longer in net-net territory here and not the kind of net-net I know well enough to run past that valuation. A buy right around $1 off that pull-back would have been sweet in retrospect because the technicals were there for it to be had but I'm happy with this trade. I had a loss today chasing a momo penny stock so this is offsetting the loss.



full disclosure: no position

Net-Net FSI International FSII On Move

I was looking through some scans and this chart stuck out. I drew the resistance line for the range it has been in.














This breakout looked interesting so I checked out some fundamentals. The stock happened to be a net-net. I think it actually rings a bell as a perennial net even though I don't scan for net current asset stocks as often as I used to. Unfortunately, it is a semi and I hate the history of its fundamentals. The fact that someone is buying this here on more than its average volume and taking it up is interesting. I'm thinking that someone may be coming in late? I've noticed some micro-caps like PXG would get accumulated after the bigger companies in the sector all got rotated into. I guess that would make sense because naturally the street is going to go after the Microsoft's first because of the liquidity then when that is exhausted and they still have money to put to work the only place left is smaller market caps.

Hard to find much good going on here. This is possibly better. "The Company intends to manage its operations with a goal to end fiscal 2009 with greater than $10 million in cash, restricted cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities." There is no long-term debt but there has been declining revenue growth and income for years.

Not very excited with the little info I have on the company fundamentally. Just watching this one right now. This isn't a good stock to invest in surely. To trade. Possbily. The technicals point to more potential upside with this rounding bottom and breakout if it holds another day or so. I've been up as much as 6% or so so far in net-net IFON. So far the stock is holding up well.

full disclosure: no position in FSII, long IFON

Net-Net in Play, Stock Daytrading Watches

I noticed these two net-net's awhile back because of the nice uptrend they were in and just longed one of them. I longed IFON at $1.58 because it is doing what I wanted to see. I wanted to see a bull flag with a good signal like I mentioned in that other post.


Well, I've missed a lot of this move off the flag but I feel good here because there were some big blocks of shares coming in today. Not to mention this is a tech name and a net-net play to boot. Thing is this is a high beta stock so it's probably just going to ride with the market good or bad like it has so far. I've got my exit scoped out and it will be if it breaks below this trend line it is in right now probably. I might also think about stopping out if it cracks below 1.20 because this is more of a key area right now.

LDIS is holding up well and just got a flurry of big volume days recently. I longed that one in this portfolio tracker I'm going to be tracking my net-net performance with. I had to enter a symbol to start up the account. I would have preferred to buy LDIS right here at .73ish on whatever fill I could get. From here on out I will always make a post before I place a buy in that tracking portfolio. I think this should be viewable by anyone even without an account there. Let me know if you can't view that page. I put up a great watchlist for daytrading and even some swing trading on my twitter page. It has been really good past couple days. http://twitter.com/StockPursuit


















full disclosure: long IFON