I was watching crude oil over the last couple weeks but this last week I got distracted with some other stocks like my QDEL buy and I missed the easy oil trade. I wasn't watching for a breakout. Let's go back a second. Well, a week or two ago I saw the same exact pattern forming in oil. Fundamentally oil and gold rise because of inflation.
On this chart below I was expecting heavy volume to come on the first move before a breakout. It wasn't there. Usually when a triangle pops it is on volume like gold was. There were two hammers back to back leading right up to the breakout though that I missed. There actually is a triangle that this move has come off of just not the long one I was expecting.
Time To Buy Oil ETFs?
For the very long-term it's a good idea especially on major dips. But holding oil contracts outright vs ETFs is better. For holding for months at a time the etf USL should track oil better vs USO because of the contracts. USO has underperformed oil because it holds short-term contracts. USL holds 12 month futures contracts.
I doubt there is that much short-term upside left on this move but I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple more days before some consolidation. I'm not sure I will put a position on on another breakout because I play oil with ETFs like the double long DXO and I want to see a lot of clear upside that I can swing trade. Maybe I'll take a stab if bigger volume comes here this week.
full disclosure:no position in DXO or any oil
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technical Analysis. Show all posts
October 19, 2009
October 10, 2009
Swing Trade Set-Ups
My gold stock watch MMG from yesterday popped 60% today. I don't expect most of these to pop over 20% in one day soon but who knows. Net-Net FSII just broke out again and has some good technicals going for it. Most of these watches below are suited for a swing trade with the stop loss right below the trend lines or fairly loose. Ideally these might be good entries on slight pull-backs if they happen to come quick or on the next push up depending on the next move.
This is a flu play. They sell point of care flu tests. I think EPS guidance maybe isn't taking fully into account the swine flu panic by offices ordering more product.
The ticker is CEMJQ formerly CEM I believe
I've talked about this baby boomer retirement play a lot in the past year. Very bullish chart.
Trades in a clear trading range. 16.90s is sell target
Same stock longer-term
A watch for breakout from this trading range.
You know the bulls are in control when consumer fashion apparel stocks like American Eagle AEO are breaking out on gaps on huge volume. No doubt retail sales results had a hand in this. It's the direction the market goes on the news that is important. Hey, so what if it is from 0% rates and trillions in stimulus. I'd be happy to long AEO on retest of gap about 17.40ish if it holds. It might just take off though tomorrow but I doubt it. It still would be a spec swing trade though.
full disclosure:no positions
This is a flu play. They sell point of care flu tests. I think EPS guidance maybe isn't taking fully into account the swine flu panic by offices ordering more product.
The ticker is CEMJQ formerly CEM I believe
I've talked about this baby boomer retirement play a lot in the past year. Very bullish chart.
Trades in a clear trading range. 16.90s is sell target
Same stock longer-term
A watch for breakout from this trading range.
You know the bulls are in control when consumer fashion apparel stocks like American Eagle AEO are breaking out on gaps on huge volume. No doubt retail sales results had a hand in this. It's the direction the market goes on the news that is important. Hey, so what if it is from 0% rates and trillions in stimulus. I'd be happy to long AEO on retest of gap about 17.40ish if it holds. It might just take off though tomorrow but I doubt it. It still would be a spec swing trade though.
full disclosure:no positions
October 6, 2009
Gold Stocks List
Gold has just reached new highs of $1,043. I predicted the breakout on gold in early September and presented my thesis for anyone who reads the blog. Like I was looking for and said,"Any congestion would be bullish." Gold did congest around the former highs and that was the signal along with the triangle that telegraphed the move.
Gold Stocks List
Some gold stocks to buy possibly I am looking at for potential quick trades soon are as follows. The following list is stocks I have picked out solely because of their technical price action. This is a gold correlated stock list but they don't always mimic the price of gold.
GRS had a breakout gap on volume.
Steady riser
New Gold also had a gap on volume but it needs to hold $4.30 to look like a buy.
Metalline Mining looks like it might be late to the party. Looks good on a technical breakout.
Why buy gold stocks? Gold is a commodity that usually has an inverse correlation with the United States dollar. If the dollar falls because of inflation or hyperinflation its purchasing power thus falls and any safe haven for capital is attractive to invest in. This is why you would want to buy gold stocks. The last time the United States experienced hyperinflation was during the 1970s. Gold went on a tear and was a great investment vehicle during those times.
More gold penny stocks for trades possibly.
full disclosure: no positions in any stocks mentioned at time of writing
Gold Stocks List
Some gold stocks to buy possibly I am looking at for potential quick trades soon are as follows. The following list is stocks I have picked out solely because of their technical price action. This is a gold correlated stock list but they don't always mimic the price of gold.
GRS had a breakout gap on volume.
Steady riser
New Gold also had a gap on volume but it needs to hold $4.30 to look like a buy.
Metalline Mining looks like it might be late to the party. Looks good on a technical breakout.
Why buy gold stocks? Gold is a commodity that usually has an inverse correlation with the United States dollar. If the dollar falls because of inflation or hyperinflation its purchasing power thus falls and any safe haven for capital is attractive to invest in. This is why you would want to buy gold stocks. The last time the United States experienced hyperinflation was during the 1970s. Gold went on a tear and was a great investment vehicle during those times.
More gold penny stocks for trades possibly.
full disclosure: no positions in any stocks mentioned at time of writing
October 4, 2009
Chinese Agriculture Stocks
I used a new scan and found some pretty good stocks in play. Check out the volume spikes on these. TTNP from an earlier post is still one of my top watches.
Chinese Agriculture Stock YONG
YONG hit the trend line 3 times and this last time somebody really showed their hand. Looks like a long on breakout. Might not retest that trend line anytime soon. There's no resistance on this chart to.
I checked out some of this companies fundamentals. They are...
into the research and development, manufacturing, and distribution of fulvic acid based liquid and powder nutrient compounds for plant and animal feed used in the agriculture industry in the People's Republic of China.
Gangbuster's!!!
You would imagine Chinese agriculture stocks doing pretty well in the future. They grew earnings per share 18% this year and are looking for 46% next year. EPS for next year is 1.00 per share and has just been boosted which is good. So we've only got a PE of 8 and very strong growth coming likely in the years ahead. The longer term PEG ratio is something like .30. Very attractive. The balance sheet is healthy with a current ratio of 3 and total debt to equity is just .47.
The only thing I don't like about this stock is it is already up a ton this year. On the other hand the valuation should still look cheap to a lot of people.
If you look closely at this chart and the next one you can see how usually every time it gaps up it runs. Let's keep an eye out for another gap breakout.
Media company CMLS. Probably a set-up for a buy on breakout. I missed the two hammers back to back off trend line on flag. This volume spike looks pretty telling somebody will take it over resistance I think.
Mining stock LVCA. Big volume on breakout. I think the spread will be decent and the chance of follow through on this move looks very good.
full disclosure:no positions
Chinese Agriculture Stock YONG
YONG hit the trend line 3 times and this last time somebody really showed their hand. Looks like a long on breakout. Might not retest that trend line anytime soon. There's no resistance on this chart to.
I checked out some of this companies fundamentals. They are...
into the research and development, manufacturing, and distribution of fulvic acid based liquid and powder nutrient compounds for plant and animal feed used in the agriculture industry in the People's Republic of China.
Gangbuster's!!!
You would imagine Chinese agriculture stocks doing pretty well in the future. They grew earnings per share 18% this year and are looking for 46% next year. EPS for next year is 1.00 per share and has just been boosted which is good. So we've only got a PE of 8 and very strong growth coming likely in the years ahead. The longer term PEG ratio is something like .30. Very attractive. The balance sheet is healthy with a current ratio of 3 and total debt to equity is just .47.
The only thing I don't like about this stock is it is already up a ton this year. On the other hand the valuation should still look cheap to a lot of people.
If you look closely at this chart and the next one you can see how usually every time it gaps up it runs. Let's keep an eye out for another gap breakout.
Media company CMLS. Probably a set-up for a buy on breakout. I missed the two hammers back to back off trend line on flag. This volume spike looks pretty telling somebody will take it over resistance I think.
Mining stock LVCA. Big volume on breakout. I think the spread will be decent and the chance of follow through on this move looks very good.
full disclosure:no positions
October 2, 2009
Watch List
I added a couple of stocks to my watchlist. I added ROIAK DANR TTNP. I put a conditional buy order in for DANR. If it hits $.19 I hope to get filled.
TTNP looks like it might have a pop over $1.75 coming. TTNP couldn't go over $1.75 three times. Any pure funnymentals guys/gals. count it. Random chance or an emotional, important price level? Once it breaks over this resistance level I am betting it will be in play. I probably will put a conditional buy market order for $1.80 in here sometime before the market opens. The ascending triangle helps to. Almost always volatility after a triangle.
full disclosure:no positions at time of writing
TTNP looks like it might have a pop over $1.75 coming. TTNP couldn't go over $1.75 three times. Any pure funnymentals guys/gals. count it. Random chance or an emotional, important price level? Once it breaks over this resistance level I am betting it will be in play. I probably will put a conditional buy market order for $1.80 in here sometime before the market opens. The ascending triangle helps to. Almost always volatility after a triangle.
full disclosure:no positions at time of writing
October 1, 2009
Short Stock Market With An ETF
I chickened out on my idea to short real-estate with SRS. I was spot on though on the further downside that seemed to be coming after the flag I was looking for to get short. I feel like going here with an ETF to short an index again. I like the volatility in SRS. It's prudent to wait though for more fundamental signals and technical breakdown though. So, I think I will. I think my valuation thesis makes sense and that as economic numbers will probably continue to show that this housing depression and economic recession are different than any in recent history. In other words it's hard to just get back to normal after a credit and housing bubble that lasted for many years. The only problem with a short trade for a couple days or so though I think is it could be possible that when the S&P and other indices finally correct a little the downside might be limited and they just trade sideways for weeks and months.
I was surprised and glad to see that Ben Bernanke said that businesses must be allowed to fail. I don't think he has the right framework for stopping them from becoming systemic though. I haven't read or seen his whole presentation today but it seems like he just thinks if you raise capital requirements and regulate to big to fail can be avoided? He needs to study some history if he thinks investment banks and commercial banks can exist together without major consequences to the system. Long Term Capital Management should have failed in 1998. Breaking up these ridiculous giants like Wells Fargo and Bank of America is the kind of reform that can allow firms that leverage up to fail. There's a reason my 1907 crash paper is second in a Google search for '1907 crash' only to Wikipedia.
I think our system is set up to fail now probably unfortunately though. I might post more on this as time goes by. Not sure if I should buy gold and silver bags or prepare for bartering when we can't afford these interest payments and/or they get raised.
full disclosure:no positions
I was surprised and glad to see that Ben Bernanke said that businesses must be allowed to fail. I don't think he has the right framework for stopping them from becoming systemic though. I haven't read or seen his whole presentation today but it seems like he just thinks if you raise capital requirements and regulate to big to fail can be avoided? He needs to study some history if he thinks investment banks and commercial banks can exist together without major consequences to the system. Long Term Capital Management should have failed in 1998. Breaking up these ridiculous giants like Wells Fargo and Bank of America is the kind of reform that can allow firms that leverage up to fail. There's a reason my 1907 crash paper is second in a Google search for '1907 crash' only to Wikipedia.
I think our system is set up to fail now probably unfortunately though. I might post more on this as time goes by. Not sure if I should buy gold and silver bags or prepare for bartering when we can't afford these interest payments and/or they get raised.
full disclosure:no positions
September 30, 2009
Bank and Financial Stocks
I've had an eye out for anything financial lately. Especially looking for the beginning of a new run. CSGH isn't a financial I don't think but it has a great chart going for it right now. Might just run again tomorrow. Great volume spike.If anyone else has some nicely uptrending financials or ones that just had unusual volume anytime in the future post them up with the ticker in a comment anytime. Unusual volume spikes are great scans. I recently caught BRNC with one at a 5 handle and it ran to $7.
full disclosure:no positions
full disclosure:no positions
September 28, 2009
Ben Graham Net-Net EFJI
EF Johnson Technologies EFJIMost of their business is from wireless radios. They sell wireless communications equipment with a large base of their customers being the government.
Major Customers
The U.S. Department of Defense was approximately 15%, 62% and 16% of consolidated revenues in 2008, 2007 and 2006. DRS Technologies, Sprint/Nextel, and the State of California are significant customers, representing 13%, 12% and 12%, respectively, of consolidated revenues in 2008.
Valuation
At $1.24 a share market cap is $32.74 mil and net current asset value is $39.41 mil. Net current asset valuation is a quick rough liquidation value. However, in this particular case almost 50% of NCAV (net current asset value) is comprised of inventory sitting in storage. In the event of an actual hypothetical liquidation it would very likely yield much less than the amount on the companies books.
2009 earnings per share have been boosted it appears to $.06 and a sole analyst expects $.10 for 2010. At 1.24 a share this is only about 12 times earnings and they could continue to grow over 50%. This asset valuation and trailing 2009 PE multiple of 20 seem nuts to me. Nuts meaning it might still be undervalued.
On the 15th of September volume soared and the stock flew on the back of a press release for their new Hybrid IP25 first responder radio system and 2 new military contracts for the radios on the 15th. I would have loved this stock at $1.00 because of the larger asset valuation cushion and also because of the price action. I believe the stock could have a pull-back soon which I explain in the following charts and I am going to wait a day or two to see what develops.
In the above chart we can see that there could be strong support right around $1.00.
The green line on ADX contracting worries me a little right now
It's running on heavy momo(momentum) right now being that it is hugging the upper band. Some people could take some profits soon.
The arrow on the right shows how buying volume is trending downward day to day which worries me that buyers might be getting exhausted in this round up for now atleast. Plus the doji candle two days ago and a shooting star candle Friday. The momo could very well continue for awhile but I feel more comfortable waiting just a day or two for either a pull-back or some other sign buyers are committed right now.
full disclosure: no position at time of writing
Major Customers
The U.S. Department of Defense was approximately 15%, 62% and 16% of consolidated revenues in 2008, 2007 and 2006. DRS Technologies, Sprint/Nextel, and the State of California are significant customers, representing 13%, 12% and 12%, respectively, of consolidated revenues in 2008.
Valuation
At $1.24 a share market cap is $32.74 mil and net current asset value is $39.41 mil. Net current asset valuation is a quick rough liquidation value. However, in this particular case almost 50% of NCAV (net current asset value) is comprised of inventory sitting in storage. In the event of an actual hypothetical liquidation it would very likely yield much less than the amount on the companies books.
2009 earnings per share have been boosted it appears to $.06 and a sole analyst expects $.10 for 2010. At 1.24 a share this is only about 12 times earnings and they could continue to grow over 50%. This asset valuation and trailing 2009 PE multiple of 20 seem nuts to me. Nuts meaning it might still be undervalued.
On the 15th of September volume soared and the stock flew on the back of a press release for their new Hybrid IP25 first responder radio system and 2 new military contracts for the radios on the 15th. I would have loved this stock at $1.00 because of the larger asset valuation cushion and also because of the price action. I believe the stock could have a pull-back soon which I explain in the following charts and I am going to wait a day or two to see what develops.
In the above chart we can see that there could be strong support right around $1.00.
The green line on ADX contracting worries me a little right now
It's running on heavy momo(momentum) right now being that it is hugging the upper band. Some people could take some profits soon.
The arrow on the right shows how buying volume is trending downward day to day which worries me that buyers might be getting exhausted in this round up for now atleast. Plus the doji candle two days ago and a shooting star candle Friday. The momo could very well continue for awhile but I feel more comfortable waiting just a day or two for either a pull-back or some other sign buyers are committed right now.
full disclosure: no position at time of writing
Strong KEME
I haven't traded any of those ETF's like I was thinking about like SRS or a short on the Nasdaq. This market continues to be incredible as far as the confidence in equities even with higher valuations. I'm not going to short any indices soon. I put this momentum penny stock KEME at the top of my watchlist the other day and ended up longing it at an average basis of $1.48 a share. It failed to breakout then has just seemingly re-tested and printed a hammer today. I'm looking for a breakout to sell into and add to my 7% profit so far. If it gets hung up again on the breakout and doesn't look strong I'll probably take the gain or cut it break-even to slightly down. This hammer looks really good to me though.
full disclosure:long
full disclosure:long
September 24, 2009
Real Estate Index In Trouble
Existing home sales fell very unexpectedly it seems.
I'm a day late in catching this perfect set-up but I think there will be some continuation. Maybe a lot of continuation. When I first saw the candle the arrow points to I thought it was a pure shooting star but it is more of a doji which is just as ugly being at the top of this chart. These two spike days back to back look very bearish plus that half shooting star/doji, plus the fundamentals.
I'm hoping for a pull-back so I can get long UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS). If it gaps down I might go long to. The risk of taking this trade for more than a day or two is there is good support at 11.00 to 11.20 in SRS(the line) and it will probably bounce around before another big move.
full disclosure: no position in SRS, IYR
I'm a day late in catching this perfect set-up but I think there will be some continuation. Maybe a lot of continuation. When I first saw the candle the arrow points to I thought it was a pure shooting star but it is more of a doji which is just as ugly being at the top of this chart. These two spike days back to back look very bearish plus that half shooting star/doji, plus the fundamentals.
I'm hoping for a pull-back so I can get long UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS). If it gaps down I might go long to. The risk of taking this trade for more than a day or two is there is good support at 11.00 to 11.20 in SRS(the line) and it will probably bounce around before another big move.
full disclosure: no position in SRS, IYR
September 23, 2009
ABK Ambac Financial
ABK's consolidation here around resistance is forming a nice looking triangle. It's congesting right around resistance which is very bullish. Add that healthy consolidation and this is a good set-up for a buy here on any pop in price. Especially on heavy volume over 1.81. I'm going to front run it and nibble on it here today. These are the kind of set-ups(triangles) that have been working so well lately.
click for bigger picture
ABK really gave off some easy signals to read in hindsight. There was a hammer at the bottom on 8-17 and a doji off that recent consolidation.
full disclosure:no position at time of writing. Order pending.
click for bigger picture
ABK really gave off some easy signals to read in hindsight. There was a hammer at the bottom on 8-17 and a doji off that recent consolidation.
full disclosure:no position at time of writing. Order pending.
September 22, 2009
Trading Update
I sold ABK at 1.90 because it popped huge just like I expected. My cost basis on ABK was 1.67 so I did about 13% on it. I'm up some in KEME and INHX I'm about breakeven. INHX if you've been following me has been great if you could have gotten some off the 1.08ish bounce that I was looking for. I messed up the order and got a 1.20 buy fill the other day for INHX.
INHX and KEME are ascending triangles. INHX is a drug stock so I am not the most confident there will be a nice pop but it is looking good so far. I could have sold at 1.30ish but I'm swinging these until the price action occurs at the tip of the triangle or I stop out. So far I'm really happy with the success of this consolidation pattern(triangles), especially recently. I think from now on in up-trending overall markets this will be a great swing trading strategy for me. The stop loss is easy to place and the volatility off of the consolidation pattern produces nice runs like an NCT for example.
DITC is a value stock right above net current asset value I am liking the price action of right now.
full disclosure: long INHX and KEME
INHX and KEME are ascending triangles. INHX is a drug stock so I am not the most confident there will be a nice pop but it is looking good so far. I could have sold at 1.30ish but I'm swinging these until the price action occurs at the tip of the triangle or I stop out. So far I'm really happy with the success of this consolidation pattern(triangles), especially recently. I think from now on in up-trending overall markets this will be a great swing trading strategy for me. The stop loss is easy to place and the volatility off of the consolidation pattern produces nice runs like an NCT for example.
DITC is a value stock right above net current asset value I am liking the price action of right now.
full disclosure: long INHX and KEME
September 18, 2009
Stock Picks Are On Fire
You might want to just bookmark and check the blog every morning to catch fresh posts. For me atleast Feedburner email posts tend to be late a lot. I get my own posts with email feed to make sure the feed keeps working ok and sometimes the posts will come in up to one or two days late.
I'm going to boast a little on how well stocks I put up on this blog have done lately. I'd imagine if you all were watching these you might have commented. But then again since I started to find my groove these past few months in many different strategies I guess great picks are more common now. Boasting how well my watches do probably gets a little old but this past week has been amazing as you are about to see. I'll cut down or cut out the praising my own picks in the future. If your new to the blog or are passively just reading I just want to give you the heads up. I find winners in all types of markets. Bull or bear. Unlike other pure value investors who are sucking their thumb right now trying to find potentials.
My financial picks from the other day which included GNW and HIG among others did amazing if you saw that. I mentioned NCT in that post just yesterday and it was one of the top gainers today 20% gain along with SPDE. Remember SPDE? SPDE was up 118% today! ARNA was in that watchlist to and it was up big after hours today. Both of these stocks ran after triangular consolidation. I knew ARNA was a good watch because of how it has run in the past. It likes to squeeze shorts too. ARNA was the stock I predicted and won Timothy Sykes price target contest with.
I made a statement some months back that this is the best blog for net-net(net current asset) ideas. In 2009 I had 25 winning net-net picks and 4 losers. Since all of those were just ideas I measured their performance as if someone bought them the day after they first appeared on the blog and held through the stocks runs. With most of the ideas it would have been hard to lose money because you just had to wait for some gain and sell. Someone didn't think those picks were good and mentioned Greenbackd.com as the best site for net-nets even though my ideas went on for the biggest percentage gains. Remember I found PIR at rock bottom among other gainers. Well, so far it is looking like I might not even have to separate this blog from the small handful of other top net-net blogs maybe. I left a comment in Greenbackd's post because they were asking for comments on the market. http://greenbackd.com/2009/09/16/ring-the-bell-announcing-the-inaugural-gizzard-squeezer-gong/
EDIT: apparently, Greenbackd comments section posts newer comments at the top of the comments where I never expected them to show up. Disregard the next paragraph.
I tried to post a comment that I thought the last couple decades was fantasy so it is very likely the indices will not see new highs for a very long time. I also said check out ADPT because the activists are getting busier in that stock. I tried to post the comment because I thought it was appropriate and with good intentions. The comment form had a standard name entry space and url. I used my name and the url to my blog. Their blog has moderator approval on for comments and for some reason they have yet to approve my comment. If they don't want people using a url along with their name I don't see why they would even give that option. Do they not like intelligent comments? Are net-net comments inappropriate for a deep value site? Hmmm, I wonder why this site would be a threat to their readers? ; )
full disclosure:no positions
I'm going to boast a little on how well stocks I put up on this blog have done lately. I'd imagine if you all were watching these you might have commented. But then again since I started to find my groove these past few months in many different strategies I guess great picks are more common now. Boasting how well my watches do probably gets a little old but this past week has been amazing as you are about to see. I'll cut down or cut out the praising my own picks in the future. If your new to the blog or are passively just reading I just want to give you the heads up. I find winners in all types of markets. Bull or bear. Unlike other pure value investors who are sucking their thumb right now trying to find potentials.
My financial picks from the other day which included GNW and HIG among others did amazing if you saw that. I mentioned NCT in that post just yesterday and it was one of the top gainers today 20% gain along with SPDE. Remember SPDE? SPDE was up 118% today! ARNA was in that watchlist to and it was up big after hours today. Both of these stocks ran after triangular consolidation. I knew ARNA was a good watch because of how it has run in the past. It likes to squeeze shorts too. ARNA was the stock I predicted and won Timothy Sykes price target contest with.
I made a statement some months back that this is the best blog for net-net(net current asset) ideas. In 2009 I had 25 winning net-net picks and 4 losers. Since all of those were just ideas I measured their performance as if someone bought them the day after they first appeared on the blog and held through the stocks runs. With most of the ideas it would have been hard to lose money because you just had to wait for some gain and sell. Someone didn't think those picks were good and mentioned Greenbackd.com as the best site for net-nets even though my ideas went on for the biggest percentage gains. Remember I found PIR at rock bottom among other gainers. Well, so far it is looking like I might not even have to separate this blog from the small handful of other top net-net blogs maybe. I left a comment in Greenbackd's post because they were asking for comments on the market. http://greenbackd.com/2009/09/16/ring-the-bell-announcing-the-inaugural-gizzard-squeezer-gong/
EDIT: apparently, Greenbackd comments section posts newer comments at the top of the comments where I never expected them to show up. Disregard the next paragraph.
I tried to post a comment that I thought the last couple decades was fantasy so it is very likely the indices will not see new highs for a very long time. I also said check out ADPT because the activists are getting busier in that stock. I tried to post the comment because I thought it was appropriate and with good intentions. The comment form had a standard name entry space and url. I used my name and the url to my blog. Their blog has moderator approval on for comments and for some reason they have yet to approve my comment. If they don't want people using a url along with their name I don't see why they would even give that option. Do they not like intelligent comments? Are net-net comments inappropriate for a deep value site? Hmmm, I wonder why this site would be a threat to their readers? ; )
full disclosure:no positions
September 16, 2009
Financials Still Strong
The stock watchlist I put up the other day when financials were at technical support levels has done pretty good. Actually really good. GNW since that list ran from $9 to $13, 40% run. HIG is over $28 now. RAS took off. SUPG is breaking out a little here. SBGI is up a $1 to $3.80. I put that list up because financials had flagged down and if the run was going to continue those were some of the best financials to try and trade the possible move with. I'm sure there are some compelling fundamental reasons institutions are accumulating them. I don't really care because I can just see their footprints.
FRZ and KEME are still consolidating. I'm still going to keep an eye on KEME and SUPG. NCT is breaking out. I'm long INHX and am looking for a breakout. It's slowly moving up with higher highs. I didn't get the price I wanted. I wanted a conditional trigger buy if it fell to just over $1 at 1.08 but I got filled at 1.20 I think. Still will be good if it breaks out. It sure has found support right around $1 these two days though.
full disclosure:long INHX
FRZ and KEME are still consolidating. I'm still going to keep an eye on KEME and SUPG. NCT is breaking out. I'm long INHX and am looking for a breakout. It's slowly moving up with higher highs. I didn't get the price I wanted. I wanted a conditional trigger buy if it fell to just over $1 at 1.08 but I got filled at 1.20 I think. Still will be good if it breaks out. It sure has found support right around $1 these two days though.
full disclosure:long INHX
September 13, 2009
Interesting Stock Charts
Huge volume spike on Bronco Drilling Friday. This ran to 5.40 after hours. Their balance sheet has been improving quarter by quarter.
Looks a little like a failed signal on the triangle breakdown. That sell-off went nowhere and it bounced back nice. Looking for volume to come back and big pop very soon.
I think ARNA has phase III results soon.
Nice volume spike and looks like clean breakout in works. Could just take off.
Hammer right up at resistance. Looks bullish.
Still breaking out. Amazing.
Possible this was a bull flag.
full disclosure:no positions
Looks a little like a failed signal on the triangle breakdown. That sell-off went nowhere and it bounced back nice. Looking for volume to come back and big pop very soon.
I think ARNA has phase III results soon.
Nice volume spike and looks like clean breakout in works. Could just take off.
Hammer right up at resistance. Looks bullish.
Still breaking out. Amazing.
Possible this was a bull flag.
full disclosure:no positions
September 11, 2009
Stocks To Keep On Watchlist
ADPT had a big volume spike the other day when it ran over resistance. This was a good entry point and see how it bounced off support in the upper $2.80s where I liked the stop loss just below? I don't BS with these stocks. Especially net-net's. This set-up is still here. It just tested support(former resistance) and could just breakout or consolidate again. A new entry would be best on a breakout I feel because the best stop off of a new entry isn't to clear to me. A stop loss for a breakout entry over 3.13ish would be 2.95.
PGV is back in play. This thing loves to run. DEAR is in play and is a bank so you know what the appetite can be like for a stock like that. Huge run though. Would be surprised to not see some consolidation. These stocks I just throw up on watchlists are ideal for daytrading and are just watches. If I do an entire post on a stock I really mean business on it. BSTK from the other day ran 90% that next day.
full disclosure: no positions
PGV is back in play. This thing loves to run. DEAR is in play and is a bank so you know what the appetite can be like for a stock like that. Huge run though. Would be surprised to not see some consolidation. These stocks I just throw up on watchlists are ideal for daytrading and are just watches. If I do an entire post on a stock I really mean business on it. BSTK from the other day ran 90% that next day.
full disclosure: no positions
September 9, 2009
Net-Net FSII Soaring
I first found this net-net at around $.60 and it was at a big discount to net current asset value. I put it on the stock watchlist Monday because it broke out of a triangular consolidation. It's slightly over NCAV of $28 million now at over $1 a share. Huge volume today.
full disclosure:no position at time of writing
full disclosure:no position at time of writing
September 7, 2009
Strong Stocks Watch List
The financial sector has bounced off an important technical level on light volume. XLF, the sector ETF printed a hammer Friday which could be bullish. Anyway, these are a handful of stocks that stood out to me technically and have some momo going for them for potential quick trades.
Financials
RAS flagged and bounced real well.
GNW same but trend line a little more defined.
HIG two hammers back to back off trend line. This chart looks the best out of these financials as far as technicals with the two hammers and clean trend line. Just needs volume to follow through again or a move over Fridays high.
TGIC seems due for a bounce.
Trying to hold uptrend. Last time it congested around trend line before run.
Nice consolidation. Looking for breakout.
Looks good on breakout.
Former deep value FSII continues to impress. Nice volume on this tech stock.
FRZ maybe good on breakout
breaking out
Should be a good watch list for some good moves if the runs continue.
full disclosure:no positions
Financials
RAS flagged and bounced real well.
GNW same but trend line a little more defined.
HIG two hammers back to back off trend line. This chart looks the best out of these financials as far as technicals with the two hammers and clean trend line. Just needs volume to follow through again or a move over Fridays high.
TGIC seems due for a bounce.
Trying to hold uptrend. Last time it congested around trend line before run.
Nice consolidation. Looking for breakout.
Looks good on breakout.
Former deep value FSII continues to impress. Nice volume on this tech stock.
FRZ maybe good on breakout
breaking out
Should be a good watch list for some good moves if the runs continue.
full disclosure:no positions
September 2, 2009
Stock Market Analysis
My technical bull call from about a month or so ago on the major indices has been right on. Around Dow Jones 9,500 was some key resistance. Dow Jones 10,000 would take out some good resistance levels and about be confirmation of a technical bottom. It looks like this is going to be a struggle with these fairly valued valuations. I had no idea what the fundamentals and economics was going to look like a month ago or even four months ago. Fundamentals and valuations are powerful I feel and know to. It's a fact technicals can only go so far. Economic reality is a powerful slap in the face.
In that last link you can see how the overall stock market started breaking down technically when valuations were at historic levels in the tech bubble nine years ago. People were blinded by the "new age" of technology and valued stocks as if they could grow profits beyond the possible. Once the technicals matched the fundamental picture that was the time to take profits and get short.
If the economic data stays about the same going into the fourth quarter 2009 and 2010 and GDP adjusted for stimulus stays pretty crappy its an easy short in my opinion on overall fundys.
Valuations
S&P 500
Trailing PE
70.85
Forward
17.24
Naz
Trailing
43
Forward
20 !
Dow
Trailing
15
Forward
15
This is not just another little recession. The economy is not going to blast to new heights any time soon. Forward valuations look more like a regular old recession is about to end I feel. The consumer is different now. The consumer is saving more now and deleveraging the last 15-20 years of insanity. This could take some time I believe.
The question I have been asking myself is just how long can the government spending and low rates continue to have a positive effect on the economy without bankrupting us in the long-term if it is not to late already. Could the FED and government stimulus actually work? They certainly had an effect in the past. But just how bad is the recession/depression? It's not easily overcome right?
I think these valuations are getting to optimistic and we are about fairly valued here. There is the possibility that the run continues hoping for a big, real change and in that case I feel that 12,000 on Dow and 1,300 S&P are the easiest levels to get short on a solid technical signal. I'm still watching for a signal here for a short. A major wide ranging day where we see a 3-4% plunge would be a good signal. There isn't a spike top here like we had on the last tops over the last year. This action the past day is not looking like a major signal. A spike/wide ranging drop day and a gap down should be good technical analysis indicators going forward. Feel free anybody to comment on the economy and valuations and disagree with me. I like hearing all sides to things and I won't bite.
source on PE ratios
In that last link you can see how the overall stock market started breaking down technically when valuations were at historic levels in the tech bubble nine years ago. People were blinded by the "new age" of technology and valued stocks as if they could grow profits beyond the possible. Once the technicals matched the fundamental picture that was the time to take profits and get short.
If the economic data stays about the same going into the fourth quarter 2009 and 2010 and GDP adjusted for stimulus stays pretty crappy its an easy short in my opinion on overall fundys.
Valuations
S&P 500
Trailing PE
70.85
Forward
17.24
Naz
Trailing
43
Forward
20 !
Dow
Trailing
15
Forward
15
This is not just another little recession. The economy is not going to blast to new heights any time soon. Forward valuations look more like a regular old recession is about to end I feel. The consumer is different now. The consumer is saving more now and deleveraging the last 15-20 years of insanity. This could take some time I believe.
The question I have been asking myself is just how long can the government spending and low rates continue to have a positive effect on the economy without bankrupting us in the long-term if it is not to late already. Could the FED and government stimulus actually work? They certainly had an effect in the past. But just how bad is the recession/depression? It's not easily overcome right?
I think these valuations are getting to optimistic and we are about fairly valued here. There is the possibility that the run continues hoping for a big, real change and in that case I feel that 12,000 on Dow and 1,300 S&P are the easiest levels to get short on a solid technical signal. I'm still watching for a signal here for a short. A major wide ranging day where we see a 3-4% plunge would be a good signal. There isn't a spike top here like we had on the last tops over the last year. This action the past day is not looking like a major signal. A spike/wide ranging drop day and a gap down should be good technical analysis indicators going forward. Feel free anybody to comment on the economy and valuations and disagree with me. I like hearing all sides to things and I won't bite.
source on PE ratios
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)